Issued: Tue, Feb 20, 2018 at 10AM

Expires: Thu, Feb 22, 2018

Above 2,500ft Moderate

1,500 to 2,500ft Moderate

Below 1,500ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Our snowpack has 2 – 3 different ice crusts, with various faceted layers in between, and a little soft snow on top in protected areas. Over the last week, we’ve had a few wind events from the north and the south. We’re still hearing reports of good skiing to be found in places the winds haven’t hit, so keep searching, they are out there! (Hint: think north aspects around treeline, and protected glacier areas) Everywhere in between will be a dust-on-crust situation or just hard packed wind board/crust. The main danger to look out for will be recent/fresh wind slab on cross-loaded and wind loaded slopes/gullies steeper than 30 degrees. We’re also getting occasional reports of whumping within the facet layer below the upper ice crust, which shows that this upper ice crust is decomposing and getting weaker as a bridge.

Problem #1: Wind Slab

Location: Wind loaded slopes (possible on all aspects) and cross-loaded terrain features/gullies, above 1,500ft. Winds have blown from both the north and the south over the last week. Any fresh wind slabs will be sensitive to human triggers on slopes 30 degrees and steeper. Wind slabs will be 15-45cm thick, with the sliding surface being the new/old snow interface where we have a thin layer of faceted snow above a slick ice crust/wind board.

Stick to areas where the top layer of snow is protected from the winds and not forming a cohesive slab. Always practice good travel techniques, utilizing safe zones and escape routes, only exposing one person at a time to slopes over 30 degrees.

Problem #2: Persistent Slab

Trend: danger slowly increasing. Location: all aspects above 1500ft. Likelihood of triggering: low but still possible. Confidence: low. Below the upper rain crust, recent cold weather has been faceting (weakening) the layers in the midpack and at the ground in thin, windswept areas. We have been getting reports of significant weakness within these faceted layers. Be aware that you may be able to trigger pockets of deeper slab, more likely in thinner or windswept areas. Use extra caution in thin areas, and carefully evaluate the presence of this potential danger on steep slopes, and especially on unsupported slopes.

Recent Avalanche Activity

In the last two weeks there has been small natural wind slab activity on wind loaded slopes, with crowns up to 25-50cm thick. This is occurring regularly in sync with wind events. Cross-loaded slopes have shown the most activity since the winds have shifted direction several times.

Recent Weather

Cloudiness on Tuesday will slowly clear out for Wednesday, with light winds continuing. A storm will come in Thursday, with accumulations of 2-6″ possible. 

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline
39″ 0″ / 0.00 0″ / 0.00 0  light, N 0″/ 0.00 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline
 32″ 0″ / 0.00 0″ / 0.00 0 light, NW 0″/ 0.00 *
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 20″* 0″ / 0.00 * 0″ / 0.00 * 0 light, NW 0″/ 0.00 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!


We will be providing an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 Class this winter in Haines, February 23-25, 2018

More info and signup here.

 

Posted in Lutak Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens