The 3/21-22 storm produced 4-8 inches along the road corridor, with higher amounts to the southeast of Thompson Pass.  In some locations, this interface was reported to be sensitive on 3/23 with ski cuts producing avalanche activity that involved the new snow.   In other areas good stability was observed.  Assess the sensitivity of the new snow in the area you choose to travel by employing hand pits, test slopes and stability tests. 

Today it will be important to pay attention to new snow amounts and the sensitivity within the new snow. As the recent storm snow settles into more of a slab, human triggered avalanches could have wider propagations.  The most likely areas to find unstable snow will be in areas with higher storm totals and slopes loaded by recent wind.  Watch for hard snow over soft that would indicate wind slab.  Shooting cracks or collapsing will indicate that wind or storm slabs are capable of producing an avalanche.

Avalanches within the recent storm snow have the potential of stepping down to Hamilton storm snow and producing large avalanches.

 The majority of locations in our forecast zone have shown the Hamilton storm snow from 3/17 sits atop very strong wind damaged snow with good bonding observed at that interface.  In areas that were more protected from late February-early March north winds, this interface consists of near surface facets.  This difference in interface is important to identify.

 Human triggered avalanches are possible up to 4 feet deep in areas where facets are present at the 3/17  interface or where the Hamilton slab is deeper than 3 feet.  These conditions are not as likely to be found within our forecast zone but have been reported in areas to the southeast of Thompson Pass that received higher storm totals, and in more continental locations where the underlying snowpack is weaker.  Use caution in steep terrain that is being directly affected by the sun. 

 Ski pole probing and digging snowpits are good ways to identify what type of interface the recent new snow is sitting on.  The 3/17 interface continues to be a low friction potential bed surface.  There is uncertainty if this will become an issue as we receive more snowfall and/or heat is able to heat penetrates further into the snowpack in the future.

Other persistent weak layers exist in our mid to lower snowpack.  These are currently unlikely to be affected where very strong wind affected snow exists at the 3/17 interface.

Wet loose avalanche activity will become possible on south aspects during the heat of the day. The potential for increasing cloud cover throughout the day may limit this activity. This is the most likely to occur on low elevation south aspects of the Maritime zone, where temperatures are expected be the highest.  Wet loose avalanches have the potential of including a lot of mass on large slopes, although some of this mass likely shed off on 3/23.  Avoid steep terrain where the surface snow is becoming moist to wet during the heat of the day

Weak snow exists at the base of our snowpack.  This weak snow is currently unlikely to be affected due to the strength of old wind affected snow at the 3/17 new/old interface.  Depth hoar may become a concern later in the season if our area continues to see major snowfall and the very strong wind damaged layer at the new/old interface starts to break down and lose strength within the snowpack.  As very hard wind slabs break down within the snowpack a person or machines weight will have a more direct affect on weak layers at the bottom of the snowpack.  In addition,  the increasing intensity of the sun will be putting pressure on deep layers during the heat of the day.