Valdez

Forecast Expired - 03/17/2023

Above 4,000ftLow

2,000 to 4,000ftLow

Below 2,000ftLow

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Persistent Slab:

Thompson Pass has only received a couple inches of snow in the last 14 days, this drought alongside strong north winds have left us with a heavily wind damaged upper snowpack and good stability.  Very hard (pencil-knife) wind slabs exist on the lee side of high elevation ridges and cross loaded gullies(SE-NW). Windward aspects have been stripped down to older layers of the snowpack , with sastrugi present and in some places the ground.  Triggering an old wind slab avalanche near the surface is currently unlikely.  On 3/14 these wind slabs were found to be unreactive to triggers while traveling on slope and in stability tests.  

 

Small facets have been forming at the surface as winds have decreased and temperatures have remained below average.  These facets exist atop a generally wind damaged snow surface that varies from wavy sastrugi on windward slopes to very hard smooth wind slabs in cross loaded gullies and top loaded slopes.  The facets mentioned above will act as a weak layer in the future as we receive new snow.  The wind damaged snow will act as an effective bed surface.  Where previous wind slabs are present in cross loaded gullies and top loaded slopes, a low friction bed surface will exist. This is expected to be more sensitive once storm slabs begin to form tonight, than areas where sastrugi previously existed.  Although poor bonding is initially expected on all varieties of wind affected snow.  Storm slabs have not yet begun to form in our forecast area, and the hazard remains Low.  

 

Other persistent interfaces exist in the mid snowpack.  At this time, it is unlikely to affect these layers due very strong snow at the surface that is limiting the affect a person or machine would have on layers lower down in the snowpack.  Remember that unlikely does not mean impossible, maintaining safe travel protocols is recommended. 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Deep Slab:

Thompson Pass has received 11 inches of snow in the last 25 days.  Recent outflow winds have stripped many areas, which has led to an overall decrease in the mass of our snowpack.  Some areas did see depositions add to the depth of the pack, but the strength of winds we received has done more scouring, stripping and sublimating than redistributing and depositing.  

 

 The overall snowpack has become thinner over the last 2 weeks in most locations.  Depth hoar is now closer to the surface and may increase the possibility to see full depth avalanches once significant loading events occur in the future, or the suns energy is able to penetrate deeper into the snowpack on south aspects.  Another affect of depth hoar being closer to the surface is that these grains that were rounded in many locations are moving toward faceting again as temperature gradients increase.   This has been confirmed by snow pits in all three forecast zones over the last week.  These have shown the overall snowpack to be faceting at all levels, with the most significant affects occurring in the bottom 1/3.  Currently, affecting this layer remains unlikely.  Although, may become an issue later in the season especially once the weather pattern changes and heavy snowfall returns.

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Below is a summary of observed Avalanche activity from the last 7 days.  Avalanches that were noted earlier in the season can be viewed by clicking the link below.

If you trigger or observe an avalanche consider leaving a  public observation.

Valdez Avalanche Activity

No natural or human triggered avalanches have been reported or observed the last 7 days.  Last activity observed occurred on the 7th and 8th during a strong temperature inversion that brought above freezing temperatures to mid and upper elevations for an extended period.  Strong north winds on 3/9-10 may have produced some small avalanches, although none have been reported or observed.

 

Weather

Check out our updated weather tab!  A collection of local weather stations are available for viewing with graphs and tabular data included.

NWS Watches and warnings

NONE
NWS Point forecast for Thompson Pass
Today
Snow, mainly before 1pm, then snow showers after 1pm. High near 22. North wind around 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow showers before 10pm, then snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 31. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow, mainly after 4am. Areas of blowing snow before 10pm. Low around 19. East wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 10am. High near 27. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Detailed forecast for Thompson Pass Mid elevation (2000-4000 Feet)
Date               Thursday 03/16/23       Friday 03/17/23         
Time (LT)          06    12    18    00    06    12    18    00    06
Cloud Cover        OV    OV    OV    OV    OV    OV    OV    OV    OV
Cloud Cover (%)    80   100    90    90   100   100   100    85   100
Temperature         9    16    19    16    16    22    27    24    21
Max/Min Temp                   22          12          30          19
Wind Dir           NE     E    SE     E    NE     E     E     E     E
Wind (mph)          8     8     5     6    16    12    24    18    14
Wind Gust (mph)                                  43    54    40    35
Precip Prob (%)    60    80    80    60   100   100    80    60    90
Precip Type         S     S     S     S     S     S     S     S     S
12 Hour QPF                  0.13        0.34        0.53        0.31
12 Hour Snow                  2.3         5.7         8.4         3.2
Snow Level (kft)  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.0   0.5   0.2
 Click on link below for Thompson Pass weather history graph:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR_Fl5087NrNCo2BtsSaum-gxrx1QioHSO4YqEmjW76LhuDu9ZsSxbBCTl6zkYIFarys-5eM_7P5GpV/pubhtml

 

 

 

Date:

03/16

24 hr snow HN24W* High temp Low temp 72 hour SWE* March snowfall Seasonal snowfall Snowpack Depth
Valdez 0 0 26 14 0 2 218 48
Thompson Pass  1 0 14 2 N/O 7 375 32
46 mile 0 0 20 2 0 1 ~85** 41

 

 

*HN24W- 24 hour Snow water equivalent in inches

*SWESnow water equivalent

**46 mile seasonal snowfall total begins December 1st.

Additional Information

 

Click on the link below for a running summary of the seasons weather history.

Valdez Weather History

Announcements

The avalanche hazard is Low at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches are unlikely.  Today will be the last day of low hazard before a Pacific storm is forecasted to deliver 12-18 inches of snow for Thompson Pass.  Snowfall is expected to slowly begin this afternoon and become heavy by tonight.  The hazard will move to moderate if heavy snowfall arrives earlier than forecasted.

 

Posted by Gareth Brown 03/16  8:00 am.

 

For a description of current avalanche problems, weather information, season history and more click the (+ full forecast) button.  Avalanche forecasts will be issued Wednesday-Sunday.

If you have pictures of recent natural or human triggered avalanches or notice signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing, leave an observation to help improve forecast accuracy.