Aspect: Most likely on wind loaded aspects and features SW-S-SE-E.

Elevation: Mainly at and above treeline.

The Bottom Line: NW winds have increase this weekend. Watch out for new wind loading and avoid freshly loaded slopes. Look for signs of sensitive surface slab conditions including natural avalanche activity, shooting cracks and whumphing or collapsing. In specific areas wind slab could be layered over surface hoar and old weak surface snow – that is prime for human triggering.

Travel advice: Avoid wind loaded aspects at and above treeline. Look for visual clues such as active wind loading and blowing snow. Stay away from slopes below ridgelines, roll-overs, or cross loaded gullies and other features steep enough to slide >30 degrees. Beware of fresh cornices that have formed from the wind and are brittle due to decreasing temperatures. Avoid terrain traps where snow could pile up quickly, or the consequences of a slide could cause injury or death.

Note: Surface avalanches could step down to weaker buried layers, see Persistent Slab problem.

Aspect: All aspects.

Elevation: All elevations, mainly at and above treeline.

The Bottom Line: Weak layers exist in our snowpack, buried between and beneath various wind slabs.  Continued cold temps are preserving these weak layers.  These weak layers exists on specific terrain features with common characteristics, but not always obvious.  They could be difficult to trigger by a person, but could have wide propagation.  Identify and avoid features of concern, such as thin areas and possible trigger point. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.

Travel advice: Use safe travel techniques such as only exposing one person at a time both on the way up and down. Identify and avoid thin areas where weak layers are more likely to trigger a slide from. Group up in safe zones that are out of harms way. Have good communication, including radios and a set plan in case of an emergency. Be practiced at companion rescue.

You can find safer conditions in wind-protected areas with softer snow.  The persistent slab danger is not going away, it is standing by waiting for the right trigger. We have not had a crush and flush cycle, or stabilizing event. Keep in mind that most avalanches are triggered by someone in the group.

• Near recent observations from Old Faithful found a thin crust with weak snow down 60-70cm near 3,200′ and below
• This bathtub ring effect, from lower-elevations to mid-elevation, where freezing levels are more likely to cause crusts and weak layers – should be carefully evaluated.
• Weaker snow (buried facets) forming between wind slabs in the top of the pack

It is still possible that any surface avalanches could step down to deeper weak layers, the October rain crust, or even the ground in alpine areas. 

***We should also should pay close attention to what is happening on the surface, keep an eye out for surface hoar and weak sugary snow.  Extended cold, clear conditions in areas with light winds and higher humidity is not a good recipe for stable snow from the next storm.  Stay tuned…. ***