Forecast Expired - 12/18/2022

Above 3,000ftConsiderable

1,500 to 3,000ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.

It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.

Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.


Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Moderate-strong north winds kicked up immediately following the 12/15 storm.  This wind has redistributed the 2-3 feet of new in exposed areas into windslabs in specific locations.  These new slabs were found to be stubborn to triggers on 12/16.  Elevated hazard likely remains on the lee side of high elevation ridge lines and cross loaded gullies.

North wind is not forecasted to be as strong today, so wind slabs are not expected to build significantly during the day.  Use test slopes to test the sensitivity of wind slabs in the area that you choose to travel.  Collapsing, shooting cracks and recent avalanche activity are all signs that point to unstable snow.


  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely


  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small


  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

A significant amount of snow fell between 12/11-12/15.  2.5 -3 feet of settled storm snow was observed on Thompson Pass yesterday with large collapses occurring.  These collapses were mostly observed in lower elevations where the interface consisted of near surface facets.  Some collapsing was observed  in the alpine, although this was more isolated.


Signs of instability are expected to decrease as time goes on and our snowpack settles. In areas where signs of instability continues to exist, slopes steeper than 30° have the potential to produce avalanches.


Avalanches that involve the mid December storm will have the potential to step down to deeper faceted weak layers in our snowpack.


  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely


  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small


  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

11/14-  Debris from a D3 natural avalanche at snow slide gulch ended 100 vertical feet above the Lowe river.  

Large avalanches (D2-2.5)also occurred in multiple other locations including Berlin Wall, Catchers Mitt, South Three Pigs and Billy Mitchell.  The activity extends beyond this list, and mostly occurred during the peak of warming and precipitation on 11/13.

Multiple natural D1-1.5 avalanches were observed on multiple aspects at low elevation.  No step downs noted.

12/1-  2 D2.5 natural avalanches were noted on Three Pigs (Beaver slide, Pig Leg). Pig leg ran into the top 1/3 of the fan and Beaver Slide stopped near the end of its track.  These both likely occurred during the outflow wind event 11/26-11/29.

D2 natural wind slab was observed on 40.5 mile peak on a west aspect ~3000′.  Crown depth range estimated 1-2 feet and 200′ long

12/9- Several D2 natural wind slab avalanches were observed on S-W aspects at mid elevation in the intermountain region.  Crowns appeared to be 1-3 feet deep.    Catchers Mitt and Gully 1 were among the spots affected.

12/12- Observation of natural activity was prevented by clouds and continuing snowfall on Thompson Pass and Valdez.

12/15- DOT avalanche control work produced several D2-2.5 avalanches from upper elevations of Hogsback and South Three Pigs.  Step downs were noted with one slide suspected of failing at the ground. 

Natural D2-2.5 avalanche activity was observed on Python Buttress north aspect, Berlin Wall northeast aspect, Averys southwest aspect and Girls mountain just above Worthington glacier southwest aspect picture below.  There was also a significant amount of avalanche activity in Keystone canyon (Bridal Veil photo below) with at least 1 deep crown reported on the ice climb Gunnison.



Check out our updated weather tab!  A collection of local weather stations are available for viewing with graphs and tabular data included.

NWS Watches and warnings

NWS Point forecast for Thompson Pass
Sunny, with a high near 5. Wind chill values as low as -30. North wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around -7. North wind 20 to 30 mph.
Areas of blowing snow after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 0. Wind chill values as low as -30. North wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Night
Areas of blowing snow before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -40. North wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near -4. Northeast wind around 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Northeast wind around 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Detailed forecast for Thompson Pass Mid elevation (2000-4000 Feet)
Date               Saturday 12/17/22       Sunday 12/18/22         
Time (LT)          06    12    18    00    06    12    18    00    06
Cloud Cover        CL    FW    FW    SC    SC    SC    BK    BK    SC
Cloud Cover (%)     0     5    20    50    30    50    60    60    30
Temperature         4     5     2    -2    -1    -3    -5    -8    -8
Max/Min Temp                    6          -6           0          -9
Wind Dir           NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE     N
Wind (mph)         21    23    19    11     9    10    16    14    14
Wind Gust (mph)    36    37    34    25    25    27    32    31    51
Precip Prob (%)     0     0     0     0     5     5     5     5     0
Precip Type                                                          
12 Hour QPF                  0.00        0.00        0.00        0.00
12 Hour Snow                  0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Snow Level (kft)  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Click on link below for Thompson Pass weather history graph:






24 hr snow HN24W* High temp Low temp 72 hour SWE* December snowfall Seasonal snowfall Snowpack Depth
Valdez 0 0 34 10 1.88 49 84 47
Thompson pass  o o 16 -3 N/O ~61 ~163 N/O
46 mile 0 0 5 -7 .92 ~22 ~29** 30



*HN24W- 24 hour Snow water equivalent in inches

*SWESnow water equivalent

**46 mile seasonal snowfall total begins December 1st.

Additional Information


Our snow season began with above average precipitation and temperatures.  Beginning in September, snow lines generally hung around 4500′ until 10/12.  At that point our area received the first snow down to sea level with 12-16 inches on the north side of Thompson Pass.  

On 10/15 wet conditions continued with the freezing line rising to 5000′ or higher. As skies finally cleared on 10/22 we were left with a thin rain saturated snowpack capped by a stout rain crust up to 4500′.  Above 4500′ much deeper snowpacks existed due to significant early season snowfall at upper elevations.

Dry and cold conditions along with moderate outflow winds finished out the month of October.

On 11/1 precipitation returned with 18 inches of snow and ~1″ of SWE on Thompson Pass.  This new snow was initially reactive with several natural D2 avalanches reported on Thompson Pass.  These slides were running on a firm bed surface consisting of old rain crusts and old wind slabs from October.

On 11/4 a strong north wind event kicked up with 65 mph+ winds on Thompson Pass.  Our snowpack received significant damage as already thin snow below 4500′ was stripped down to old wind slabs, rain crusts and the ground.  

Precipitation returned on 11/8 and became heavy on 11/11.  Storm totals of around 50 inches were recorded at Thompson Pass DOT between 11/8-11/13.  Snow lines rose to ~3000′ near the tail end of the storm with heavy rain occurring in low lying areas.

Skies cleared on 11/14 through 11/18 with a strong temperature inversion setting up.  Valley temperatures north of Thompson Pass fell to 0° F with above freezing temperatures existing above 4000 feet.  Valdez temps remained mild.  This weather allowed for widespread surface hoar up to 1 cm to develop in low lying areas.  

Precipitation returned on 11/19, with incremental snowfall on Thompson Pass and areas north.  The Valdez area received rain during this period.  12 inches have been recorded at TP DOT between 11/9-11/23.

11/26-11/29- Strong outflow (N) wind event.  Many areas below 3000′ were stripped to the 11/13 rain crust, destroying the 11/19 BSH layer.  Widespread very hard snow surfaces were the result.

Precipitation returned to our area on 12/5, with higher accumulation amounts near the coast. As storms cleared out on 12/7, they were directly followed by another round of strong north winds. These winds once again incurred severe damage to our snow stripping surfaces back to the 11/13 rain crust on windward aspects and further building pencil hard slabs on lees.

12/11-  Significant snowfall event that dropped 12-24 inches+ in a 12 hour period.

12/12-12/15-  Steady snowfall continues with short breaks between pulses.  Storm ended the night of 12/15 with 2+ feet accumulating overnight above 2000′.  Valley locations received heavy rain.



The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 4000 feet and Moderate below. Human triggered avalanches up to 3 feet deep will be likely today in specific locations.  Strong north winds have built windslabs on lee aspects that are expected to be reactive to human triggers on the lee side of high elevation ridge lines and cross loaded gullies. 

Posted by Gareth Brown 12/17  8:00am.


For a description of current avalanche problems, weather information, season history and more click the (+ full forecast) button.  Avalanche forecasts will be issued Wednesday-Sunday.