Our forecast area received 4-10 inches of low density snow on 1/11.  On 1/13 stable conditions were observed in areas where the surface remains unaffected by wind.  Areas that have recently seen wind redistribution, are expected to have sensitive wind slabs on lee aspects.  Widespread surface hoar was observed on 1/13 on all aspects and elevations.  This will be a problem layer in the future if it is buried intact.  

There is currently a lot of low density snow available for transport.  Winds are forecasted to gust up to 40 mph through wind channeled terrain, which will be forming sensitive wind slabs in specific areas 1-2 feet in depth.  Areas further away from passes and gaps are expected to be calm today, in these areas the hazard will be lower.

Today it will be important to pay attention to what wind has done to snow at the surface.  Use test slopes to determine how well new snow has bonded and watch for signs of recent wind loading (hard snow over soft).  Signs of instability such as shooting cracks and recent avalanche activity will indicate that slopes steeper than 32° will have the potential to produce avalanches.

For the first time since 12-16 a natural avalanche was reported that failed at faceted snow near the base of our snowpack.  This occurred 1/6 on a SW aspect ~3500′ between Catchers Mitt and Loveland Basin, crown 1-6 feet in depth.  This is a repeat offender slope when loaded by wind, although is noteworthy due to its depth.  

This avalanche has thus far been an outlier, however indicates that the strong wind affected snow that has capped the early season facets may be losing strength (faceting) making weak snow more easily affected by a person or Snowmachine at the surface in certain areas.  

Recently our snowpack has been slowly building with light snowfall and calm to moderate winds.  This weather will help our snowpack to heal in the longterm but in the short term will be putting incremental stress on weak layers at the base of our snowpack.  This is a fine balance and is very difficult to assess as spatial (place to place) variability is currently significant.  This recent avalanche is a perfect example that persistent weak layers are difficult to predict/assess and conditions may be different depending upon the area you choose to travel.  

In most places at this point, triggering a deep hard slab avalanche is very unlikely, but the consequences would be significant.  Keep this in mind when choosing terrain and strive to practice safe protocols.  These include:  good communication, skiing one at a time and avoiding terrain traps.