The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.
It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.
Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.
An older slab avalanche was observed on Jan 4 on Little Girls Mtn at 3500', D2, nS aspect, 3' crown, possibly running on an old rain crust. It is thought that this released in 2018.
On Jan 3 and 4 there were several small wind slab avalanches, both natural and skier triggered, (less than 1' deep) along the road corridor between Thompson Pass and 38 mile, between 3-4000', on multiple aspects.
Please share your field observations including signs of stable snow HERE.
Clear and sunny skiers, moderate north winds, and cold temperatures are forecasted through the weekend (Jan 6th).
The most recent NWS rec Forecast can be found HERE:
317 PM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Temp at 1000` -6- 3 F 4-10 F
Temp at 3000` 1-14 F -3- 7 F
Chance of precip 0% 0%
(above 1000 FT) 0.00 in 0.00 in
(above 1000 FT) 0 in 0 in
Snow level sea level sea level
Wind 3000` ridges NE 10-20 mph NE 10-35 mph
SNOWPACK BIG PICTURE: The New Year's Eve storm brought nearly 2.5" of SWE to Valdez and almost another 1" on the 2-3rd of January. That is a LOT of snow and rain in 5 days and it accumulated to over 3' above 2000' near Thompson Pass. Both of these storms had little wind and we have seen surprisingly little avalanche activity. Above 4000' the snowpack averages over 300cm deep and has good strength and structure (few lemons). Below the rain line from the historically warm and wet October, 3500-4000', the snowpack is significantly shallower and has more problem layers: facet-crust combos and BASEL facets (all the way to sea level). There is barely enough snow to build a slab avalanche or travel off trail below 1000'.
TREND Jan 4-6: The overall snowpack should continue to absorb the new load well as old layers keep gaining strength (rounding). Building winds are rapidly changing the surface conditions and building new wind slabs. In sheltered places we have the potential for surface hoar growth (cold, calm, clear nights) - if you see surface hoar PLEASE let the VAC know!
If you get out riding, please send in an observation.
Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM.
Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.
The avalanche hazard is LOW at all elevations and should remain low until the next significant change in weather. LOW HAZARD does NOT MEAN NO HAZARD. Wind Slabs and old Persistent Slabs are unlikely but you can learn more about staying safe by clicking FULL FORECAST. There will be no hazard rating Monday Jan 7th-Thursday Jan 10th.
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