Valdez

Forecast Expired

Above 4,000ftModerate

2,000 to 4,000ftModerate

Below 2,000ftLow

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

[DuplicatePost]

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 4

Glide Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Several small wind slab avalanches (less than 1′ deep) were triggered by skiers in steep terrain on a south facing slope at 4000′, near the Tsaina Lodge on January 3rd.

A large avalanche was reported on Dec 23rd: a slab avalanche near the ridgeline of RFS, below the cornice. It was reported as possibly a size 2.5, persistent slab that ran 800-1000′.

Please share your field observations including signs of stable snow HERE.

Weather

Clear and sunny skiers, moderate north winds, and cold temperatures are forecasted through the weekend (Jan 6th).

The most recent NWS rec Forecast can be found HERE:
313 PM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
                     Tonight      Fri
Temp at 1000`      2-8 F        12 F

Temp at 3000`      7-16 F       7-16 F

Chance of precip   0%           0%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.00 in      0.00 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    0 in         0 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  NE 15-35 mph NE 10-35 mph
 

Additional Information

BIG PICTURE: The New Year’s Eve storm brought nearly 2.5″ of SWE to Valdez and almost another 1″ on the 2-3rd of January. That is a LOT of snow and rain in 5 days and it accumulated to over 3′ above 2000′ near Thompson Pass. Both of these storms had little wind and we have seen surprisingly little avalanche activity. Above 4000′ the snowpack averages over 300cm deep and has good strength and structure (few lemons). Below the rain line from the historically warm and wet October, 3500-4000′, the snowpack is significantly shallower and has more problem layers: facet-crust combos and BASEL facets (all the way to sea level). There is barely enough snow to build a slab avalanche or travel off trail below 1000′.

TREND Jan 4-6: The overall snowpack should continue to absorb the new load well as old layers keep gaining strength (rounding). Building winds are rapidly changing the surface conditions and building new wind slabs. In sheltered places we have the potential for surface hoar growth (cold, calm, clear nights) – if you see surface hoar PLEASE let the VAC know!

If you get out riding, please send in an observation.

Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM. 

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Announcements

The avalanche hazard is moderate at and above treeline due to newly forming wind slabs and old Persistent Slabs. All three zones have the same forecast through Sunday Jan 6th unless conditions change. Please click FULL FORECAST for more information.