Valdez

Forecast Expired

Above 3,000ftModerate

1,500 to 3,000ftModerate

Below 1,500ftLow

The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.

It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.

Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.

WNWNNEESESSW

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

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Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

1 large avalanche was reported on Dec 23rd: a slab avalanche near the ridgeline of RFS, below the cornice. It was reported as possibly a size 2.5, persistent slab that ran 800-1000'.

Over the past few days several small wind slabs released near Thompson Pass from human triggers and several more small cornices released naturally, south facing 3-4000'.

Weather

The most up to date NWS Rec Forecast can be found HERE

315 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
Tonight      Sat

Temp at 1000`      22 F         25 F

Temp at 3000`      26 F         25 F

Chance of precip   80%          80%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.25 in      0.24 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    3-4 in       3-4 in

Snow level         sea level    500 ft

Wind 3000` ridges  E 5-20 mph   E 5-15 mph

Remarks...None.

Additional Information

If you get out riding, please send in an observation!

Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM. 

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Announcements

The overall hazard is moderate and all 3 zones have the same forecast. Click 'full forecast' to get more info.