Valdez

Forecast Expired - 01/06/2023

Above 4,000ftConsiderable

2,000 to 4,000ftModerate

Below 2,000ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Storm Snow:

Thompson Pass reported 8 inches of snow in the last 24 hours.  It is possible that upper elevation start zones received higher amounts and sensitive surface snow could exist over the next 24 hours.  

 

Pay attention to new snow amounts and the affect of wind redistribution in the area you choose to travel.  Winds out of the NE were recorded as light to moderate, although stronger winds could have occurred in certain locations.  Hand pits can be a good way to assess how well new snow is bonding to older snow.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing that would indicate a slope has the ability to produce an avalanche with sufficient angle.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Wind Slab:

There is a currently a lot of dry snow available for transport. New snow over the last 24 hours has added to soft snow at the surface available for wind transport. Winds have been light to moderate since the New Years storms.  It will be possible to find fresh wind slabs 1-2 feet deep on the lee side of high elevation ridge lines or cross loaded gullies in wind channeled terrain.  Look for visual signs of wind loading such as pillowed snow surfaces and fresh cornice development on ridge lines.  Also watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks and collapsing that would indicate a slope has the energy to produce an avalanche.

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Persistent Slab:

Faceted snow in the bottom portion of our snowpack continues to exist in all three climate zones.  Human triggered or natural avalanches have not been reported or observed at this layer since 12/16.  At this point, it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche at this layer .  Although, trigger points may still exist in isolated locations like thin rocky areas where the overlying slab is thinner and a person or machine could affect weak facets near the ground.  

 

In most locations above brush line very hard wind damaged snow is overlying persistent weak layers.  This has effectively created a bridging affect and is one reason why affecting these layers, is not currently likely.  Remember that unlikely does not mean impossible.  Realize that this flaw in our snowpack exists and keep that information in mind while making terrain decisions in the future.

 

The most likely areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche will be in the Continental zone where a more faceted snowpack is in place and previous wind events were less severe.  Below brush line is also a concern as alders provided shelter from winds allowing persistent grains to survive near the surface as well as colder temps that would promote facets during inversions.

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Below is a summary of observed Avalanche activity from the last 7 days.  Avalanches that were noted earlier in the season can be viewed by clicking the link below.

If you trigger or observe a natural avalanche consider leaving a  public observation.

Valdez Avalanche Activity

No natural avalanche activity was reported or observed above freezing line for the New Years storm.  Wet loose activity occurred below 2000′ south of Thompson Pass with one large wet loose observed in Keystone Canyon.

Weather

Check out our updated weather tab!  A collection of local weather stations are available for viewing with graphs and tabular data included.

NWS Watches and warnings

NONE
NWS Point forecast for Thompson Pass
Today
Scattered snow showers before 9am. Mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 12 by 5pm. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low around 7. North wind around 15 mph.
Friday
Isolated snow showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of snow after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Detailed forecast for Thompson Pass Mid elevation (2000-4000 Feet)
Date               Thursday 01/05/23       Friday 01/06/23         
Time (LT)          06    12    18    00    06    12    18    00    06
Cloud Cover        OV    SC    SC    OV    OV    OV    SC    SC    OV
Cloud Cover (%)    80    25    50    85    85    85    35    40    85
Temperature        21    15    13     8    10    17    16     9    12
Max/Min Temp                   22           8          18           9
Wind Dir            E    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE    NE
Wind (mph)          4     8    13    11    11    10     8     4     8
Wind Gust (mph)                                                      
Precip Prob (%)    30     0     0     0     0    20    10    10    30
Precip Type         S                             S                 S
12 Hour QPF                  0.01        0.00        0.02        0.00
12 Hour Snow                  0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Snow Level (kft)  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
Click on link below for Thompson Pass weather history graph:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR_Fl5087NrNCo2BtsSaum-gxrx1QioHSO4YqEmjW76LhuDu9ZsSxbBCTl6zkYIFarys-5eM_7P5GpV/pubhtml

 

 

 

Date:

01/05

24 hr snow HN24W* High temp Low temp 72 hour SWE* January snowfall Seasonal snowfall Snowpack Depth
Valdez ~3 N/O 37 25 .89 0 96 33
Thompson pass  8 N/O 26 14 N/O 33 227 44
46 mile N/O N/O 16 5 N/O 20 ~56** 42

 

 

*HN24W- 24 hour Snow water equivalent in inches

*SWESnow water equivalent

**46 mile seasonal snowfall total begins December 1st.

Additional Information

 

Click on the link below for a running summary of the seasons weather history.

Valdez Weather History

Announcements

The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 4000′ and Moderate below.  We are within 24 hours of a moderate snow storm that may be enough at upper elevations to create shallow storm slabs that are sensitive to human triggers.  Pay attention to the depth and sensitivity of new snow.

Posted by Gareth Brown 01/05  8:00 am.

 

For a description of current avalanche problems, weather information, season history and more click the (+ full forecast) button.  Avalanche forecasts will be issued Wednesday-Sunday.