Valdez

Forecast as of 12/25/2018 at 15:30 and expires on 12/28/2018

Above 2,500ftModerate

1,800 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,800ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem Details

Bottom Line: Thompson Pass just hit 100" of snow for the month of December (season total 190"). Since the 14th 20" of new snow has fallen with winds predominately from the NE but also the SE. 

In the port of Valdez: 25" of new snow has fallen since Dec 14th all the way to sea level with relatively no wind.

Problem 1: Wind Slab. Location: All lee aspects above 1500'. Sensitivity: Stubborn. Likelihood: Possible. Size: Small to Large. Trend: Decreasing.

The Wind Slab hazard is MODERATE above 1800'. Stiff and stubborn slabs up to 3' have formed on multiple aspects and elevations due to lots of snow available for transport from the past few weeks. Wind slabs often feel and sound hollow and styrofoam-esk and can break higher and wider than their cousins, the storm slab, due to their stiffness. Use caution on slopes over 30deg when the surface snow begins to feel firm or show signs of wind affect (such as a wave-like appearance).

Problem 2: Persistent Slab. Location: All aspects and elevations that have enough snow to slide (possibly down to 500'). Sensitivity: Stubborn-Unreactive (dormant). Likelihood: Unlikely. Size: Large+. Trend: Diminishing.

There are multiple buried problem layers up to 6' deep in the snowpack and widespread from the port-road corridor-60 mile. There are multiple facet-crust combos (mainly rain crusts), buried near surface facets (higher in the snowpack), and basel facets at the bottom. Most of these problem layers are gaining strength; but it is a slow process. The likelihood of triggering these slabs is low but the consequence is high. ALWAYS choose your safe zones wisely and select the right route on the right day. Larger and more complex terrain is not recommended at this time. 

Announcements

No forecast until Friday the 28th. Problem details are from the last forecast on the 23rd. Please share observation HERE. Early season conditions: shallow snowpack below 4000' and multiple widespread problem layers: Basel Facets and crust-facet combos. Choose the right route, on the right day, with the right group!