Valdez
Above 3,000ftModerate
1,500 to 3,000ftLow
Below 1,500ftLow
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Our main stability concern today will be areas that have formed fresh wind slabs. On 2/9 our area received ~12 inches of low density snow. Where present, moderate winds will redistribute this new snow onto lee aspects and form wind slabs. Fresh windslabs could be initially reactive when formed due to a hard bed surface being in place along with the dry nature of the snow,. Wind channeled terrain, lee sides of ridge lines and cross loaded gullies will be the most likely spots to find reactive wind slabs.
As of 2/12 fresh wind slabs have not been widespread at the surface, although flagging was noted in a few isolated locations. Keep in mind that fresh slabs may be forming in the upper elevations and could be reactive up to 2 feet deep. It will be important to pay attention to what the wind has done to the surface. Watch for signs of wind affect on the snow surface and avoid wind loaded slopes steeper than 32°.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Instabilities in the mid and lower snowpack exist in some locations. There have not been any reports of these layers being reactive in the last 2 weeks except when very large loads are applied. These large loads include significant precipitation with rising temperatures, artillery, rapid wind loading and cornice fall. A natural full depth avalanche at 40.5 Mile Peak, ~6000′ NW aspect is a clear indicator that basal facets are still a concern in our continental zone. This avalanche likely failed during the 1/26 wind event, potentially initiated by cornice fall. See avalanche activity section for photo
Although it is unlikely to make an avalanche on these layers they would probably be unsurvivable. Avoid traveling under cornices and avoid avalanche terrain during rapidly changing weather.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
2/13- No natural or human triggered avalanches have been observed or reported since 2/1. Thompson Pass has received only 1 inch of SWE in the last 3 weeks.
2/1- Natural avalanches from the 2/1 outflow event were noted on Hippie Ridge in cross loaded gullies SW aspect/ D2’s ~4000’/ depths were difficult to gauge because crown were rapidly being filled in by wind deposit.
-Slides were also noted on Averys: SW/~3500’/ ~300′ wide/ D2
40.5 Mile Peak:W-N/~3500’/ 3 separate D2’s/ ~200-300′ wide
As stated above depths were difficult to gauge due to wind refill. A report did come in of 3′ crowns on the west aspects of the Mt. Dimond moraines/ ~4000’/ ~300′ wide
Many other avalanches likely occurred but observation was limited due to wind refilling crowns.
1/27- The photo below shows a natural D3 avalanche that was reported on 1/30. It is uncertain when this avalanche occurred. It most likely happened during the 1/26 wind event. 40.5 Mile Peak/ NW aspect/ full depth, 3+ meters / ~800′ wide/6000′. Demonstrates that basal facets are still a player in our continental zone.
-Natural D2 avalanche observed at 42 mile in a cross loaded south facing gully.
1/18-19- Numerous wet loose slides occurred region-wide below 2000′.
Schoolbus had a natural avalanche affect the highway early 1/19 that covered the road with 2′ of debris for ~100′.
DOT mitigation efforts produced avalanches at Snow Slide Gulch, Ptarmigan Drop (Nick’s Buttress), Python Buttress, Three Pigs and 40.5 Mile peak.
The most notable slide occurred at Ptarmigan Drop and Python and deposited 6′ of snow on the highway for 150′ of road length. Crowns failed at ~3500′ and were extensive, connecting almost the entirety of the Nicks’ through Python Buttresses. The western extent of Nicks stepped down to the ground in an area that failed full depth 12/1. Nearly a mile of terrain was effected with some crowns approaching a quarter mile in length.
It is unclear how much of the activity at Three Pigs and 40.5 Mile was natural versus artillery triggered, but there were multiple paths leaving debris at the bottom of run outs.
1/15- Two natural D2 avalanches observed on a NW aspect of RFS, crown~ 3′ deep.
1/9- Natural avalanche observed on an east aspect of North Tiekel. Likely failed during warmup the night of 1/8. Avalanches failed at terrain convexities around 3500′. This area is 4 miles north (beyond) our Continental forecast zone, but is still indicative of that zone.
1/8- 3 separate skier triggered avalanches on Cracked Ice at 2800’/ 40 cms deep (16 inches)/ 100-300′ wide/ ran 600-700 feet and failed on the 1/3 buried surface hoar layer. SS-AR-U-D1.5-2-O
Lower section of far lookers left crown.
12/24- Observers reported remote triggered avalanches up to 100 meters away that were a meter deep. Tsaina trees below 3000′.
12/23- DOT mitigation work on snow slide gulch produced 3 D2.5’s that ran half of their path.
– HS-N-R3-D3-G, NW Crudbusters/ ~5000′
-Multiple D2-D2.5 slides on Oddessey and Little Oddessey. NW-N aspects. Only Little Oddessey crown was clear. ~100 yards wide, ~4′ deep.
-Natural D3 avalanche on Billy Mitchell NW-N aspects, originated ~5000′ stepped down to the ground around 4200′ in rocky terrain. Approximately 200 yards wide.
-Natural D2 avalanche activity was also noted on west aspects of 40.5 mile and Iguana Backs ~3500′. Further observations were prevented due to poor light.
12/20- A powder cloud reached the highway at the mp 42 slide path. “Three Pigs”. No other details available
-Numerous small (3-4″ deep) natural avalanches were observed in the Python and Cracked Ice Buttress area.
12/20- Multiple D1 soft slabs off Mt Cheddar Cheese Wedge (Hippie Ridge) originating from ~6500′
12/3- Numerous natural avalanches were observed north of Thompson Pass with many avalanches failing at the ground. Observations were not made south of Thompson Pass.
Avalanches observed from 46 mile towards Thompson Pass:
Three Pigs: Nearly every path on the SE face ran with debris deposits stopping in the top 1/3 of aprons, thick alders prevented slides from running full path. These were mostly D3 avalanches.
40.5 Mile Peak: Many paths running similar to Three Pigs, with one running full path to the Tsaina river. Mainly W-NW aspects, D3’s
Max High (Peak on the southern extent of Hippie Ridge) had a D3 avalanche with a crown near 5500′,SW aspect.
Upper Catchers Mitt bowl E aspect, slid R4-D3 ,triggering further avalanches lower down.
The main activity noted, was on the buttresses on the east side of the pass, from Cracked Ice through North Odessey Gully. Every buttress had significant avalanche activity originating ~4000-5000′. Many of these failed at the ground, north – northwest aspect. Pictures below.
School Bus and North Odyssey Gully both ran with debris in the runouts.
Many other large to very large natural avalanches occurred.
12/2- DOT reported a natural D2.5-3 avalanche that hit the Lowe river at Snowslide Gulch.
11/30- Natural avalanche observed on 40.5 mile peak just to the South of the Shovel. West aspect, ~4500′, crown ~200′ wide, poor light prevented further observation. SS-N-R1-D2-U.
11/29: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell Cry babys shoulder, similar elevation as 11/16 slide but originated a couple hundred meters further west. Released from ~4000′ with a crown length of ~ 200 meters, North aspect, ~ 37°, failed at the ground. HS-N-R2-D2.5-G
11/16: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell “Cry babys shoulder”. Released from~3500′ with a crown length of ~200 meters, North aspect. This slide was triggered by recent NE wind cross loading the slope. SS-N-R2-D2-U
11/15: Natural avalanche observed in Loveland Basin on a South aspect, down the ridge from Tones Temple. This slide was triggered by recent NE wind loading and failed at the ground. SS-N-R1-D2-G
Weather
2/13- Clear with light winds
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.
Today Tonight
Temp at 1000` 20 F 10 F
Temp at 3000` 22 F 17-23 F
Chance of precip 0% 0%
Precip amount
(above 1000 FT) 0.00 in 0.00 in
Snow amount
(above 1000 FT) 0 in 0 in
Snow level sea level sea level
Wind 3000` ridges NE 5-25 mph NE 5-15 mph
Remarks...None.
| Date: 02/13 | 24 hr snow (inches) | HN24W (snow water equivalent inches) | High Temp (F) | Low Temp (F) | Weekly SWE Inches (Monday-Sunday) | February snowfall | Season snowfall | HS (snowpack depth inches) |
| Valdez | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | .22 | 11 | 152 | 47 |
| Thompson Pass | 0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | .25 | 20 | 386 | 80 |
| 46 Mile | 0 | 0 | 5 | -20 | 0 | 3 | 123 | 45 |
NRCS water survey results 2/4
| Location | Snow Depth (inches) | Snow water equivalent (inches) |
| 37 Mile Bridge | 47 | 12.8 |
| Worthington Airstrip | 75 | 22 |
| 18 mile | 51 | 11.6 |
| Valdez Ball Fields | 39 | 9.4 |
Thompson Pass weather history 20/21. Click on links above the images to see full size view
Additional Information
Our season began with a cold, dry and windy November which promoted faceting in the thin snowpack that existed. Only 28 inches of snow were recorded at Thompson Pass from 11/1 through 11/24.
November 25 began a series of storms that deposited 90” of snow and 11.1” of SWE on Thompson Pass at road level in an 8 day period. At the tail end of these storms the pass received 25” of snow and 3.7” of SWE in 48 hours, along with rising temps that pushed freezing line up to 3000’. This sparked a widespread natural avalanche cycle that failed on faceted snow created in early November. Many of these slides failed at the ground. See avalanche activity section for pictures of the cycle.
December continued with fairly regular snow fall and a couple periods of stable (dry) weather, with snowfall totaling 120 inches on Thompson Pass. Another, smaller natural avalanche cycle occurred on the 12/22 after Thompson Pass received 44 inches of snow with 4” of SWE in a 4 day period. Two full-depth naturals occurred in the Continental region on NW-N aspects between 4500-5000’ on NW Crudbusters and Billy Mitchell. Various other soft slab D2’s occurred in other regions as well. This indicated that depth hoar is still a concern in the Continental region but is becoming less so in our Maritime and Intermountain regions. Incremental snowfall during the second half of December has allowed the snowpack to slowly gain depth and strength.
Cold, stable weather at the end of December created widespread areas of surface hoar up to 1 cm in height, observed on all aspects between 2000-4000’ and up to ridge lines in isolated locations. This layer was more concentrated on the north side of Thompson Pass, promoted by colder temperatures and an ice fog layer that was forming during this time frame. However, this surface hoar has been reported in the Port of Valdez up to brush line.
1-3 feet of snow has since accumulated on top of this weak layer from 1/3-1/17.
A significant change in weather arrived on 1/18 delivering as much as 5″ of water to low lying areas with over 2 feet of snow accumulating above 2000′ accompanied by strong southeast winds. This prompted a natural avalanche cycle with the mid elevation band seeing the most activity.
Outflow winds have begun to affect our area beginning 1/26. This event was not widespread with many areas remaining protected. A major outflow event with speeds up to 80 mph on 2/1 had a more widespread affect on our area than the 1/26 event. Windward slopes were scoured and hard wind slabs were built on lee aspects. Once the dust settled surface snow ranged from exposed ridges blown to ground, sastrugi and very hard wind slabs. Numerous small to moderate natural avalanches occurred during the event.
On 2/2 Thompson pass received a foot of 5% density snow (very low density). This new snow rests on a very hard bed surface and has been slow to bond. Numerous point releases and sluffs have been observed in terrain steeper than 35°.
On 2/9 our area received an additional 10-16 inches of 4 % density snow, this has added to the depth of snow that is resting upon a hard bed surface. A slab has not yet formed above this bed surface, but fresh wind slabs that may have formed in isolated locations remain a concern.
In areas that were protected from the 2/1 hurricane force winds a freezing fog crust exists 40 cms down, up to 5000′. Small facets are forming above and below this crust and may become a concern in the future…
In the time period 1/25-2/13 Thompson Pass has recieved ~1″ of SWE and Valdez ~.6″.
Snowpack structure generally becomes thinner and weaker as you move north from Thompson Pass
Photos of Surface Hoar taken 1/1 on Crudbusters at 3500′ north aspect.
Announcements
The avalanche hazard is moderate at upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible above 4000′. Natural avalanches are unlikely. The main stability concern today will be new wind slabs that may have formed in specific locations. The most likely location for these to have formed are on the lee side of ridge lines above 4000′. Watch for signs of windslab at the surface such as hard snow over soft and shooting cracks. Avoid wind loaded slopes steeper than 32° and terrain traps.
For more information click the (+full forecast) button below.
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