Valdez
Above 3,000ftModerate
1,500 to 3,000ftModerate
Below 1,500ftModerate
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
1/23- Found fresh debris in a gully off point 3848′ behind the airport. D2, ran ~2000′.
Sometime around 1/10- There have been several natural windslabs that have released in the Thompson Pass region:
-South slope of catchers mitt, near 27 mile icefall,~3500′, ~300m wide ,~3′ deep, ran 500′ HS-N-R3-D2.5. Photo shows extent of crown, which may have been bigger and is now filled in by wind transported snow.
– Gully Between Little and Big Oddessey, NW, 4000′, ~60 M wide, ~2-4′ crown, ran 1000′
-Averys, ~4000′, SW, ~70 M wide, ran ~1000′
1/11- Two natural wind slab avalanches observed at moonlight basin, 2500′-2800′, S aspect.
The first was on the small last roll before the road and had debris chunks up to 3′ deep “crown filled in by wind”, 200′ wide.
The second was in a cross loaded gully ~ 300′ above the road, with a crown up to ~10′ deep, ~100′ wide. 
1/7- Report of a Glide crack release on snowslide gulch at ~3000′. D2-2.5, crown depth ~ 3 meters. Release did not produce sympathetic avalanches.
Numerous D3 avalanches were observed on the east side of the road, north of Thompson Pass. Between Gully 1 and Cracked Ice, every buttress had significant avalanches originating from ~3000-3500 ‘, NW-NE aspects. Gully 1 and 2 had debris in the drainages, with Gully 2 running a considerable distance into the flats. These avalanches most likely ran between 12/29 and 12/31 during a significant spike in temperatures. There were many other naturals during this period. Many of these have been filled in by new snow and are being blowing in by the current wind event, making them hard to see.
12/31 Numerous small-medium natural avalanches observed below 4000′ on steep rollovers on the north side of the pass.
12/30 Natural avalanche observed on Cracked Ice Butress at 2700′. ~300 meters wide, 1 meter+ deep. Connected through gullies and over ridges.
D3 avalanche on east face of Mt. Tiekel (MP 50). Ran into top 1/3 of apron.
12/28- Several natural avalanches reported in the 54 mile area near brush line. 100′ wide and ran 300′. Depth was not observed.
12/26- Skier triggered avalanche on Cracked Ice Buttress: N aspect, 2500′, 37° slope, 18 inches deep, 100 feet wide, ran 200-300 feet. SS-ASu-D1-R1-I
12/24- Skier triggered avalanche on Python Buttress: NW aspect, 2700′, 35° slope, 60 feet wide, ran 200-300 feet. SS-ASu-D1.5-R1-O
Weather
1/27- There is 6-10 inches of snow forecast for our area in the next 24 hours. North winds will be moderate to strong and temperatures will increase into the teens for Thompson Pass. More snow is on the way this week.
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.
Today Tonight
Temp at 1000` 14 F 11 F
Temp at 3000` -5-20 F 3-18 F
Chance of precip 100% 100%
Precip amount
(above 1000 FT) 0.20 in 0.24 in
Snow amount
(above 1000 FT) 2-5 in 3-7 in
Snow level sea level sea level
Wind 3000` ridges NE 25-45 mph NE 15-45 mph
Remarks...Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 9 PM AKST
this evening.
| 24h snowfall (inches) | HN24W (inches)* | Hi Temp (F) | Low Temp (F) | January snowfall | Season Snowfall | Snow height | |
| Valdez | 1 | .06 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 93 | 35 |
| 46 mile | 2 | .24 | -1 | -11 | 7 | 50 | 18 |
|
Thompson Pass “DOT” |
– | – | -6 | -11 | 24 | 319 | 78 |
HN24W= total water received last 24 hours in inches
Thompson Pass weather history 19/20 season beginning 12/21 through 1/23. Click on links below to see full size image.
Additional Information
Our area has received 6-10 inches of snow (1/19-20), which has now been redistributed by strong N-NE winds. This has created wind slab that is sitting on a variety of previously wind affected surfaces. These slabs are beginning to be stubborn to triggers, but where they rest upon previous smooth wind board, may have the energy to still produce an avalanche in specific locations. These locations include but are not limited to: cross loaded gullies, and high elevation start zones that receive top loading.
1/24 Photo of reactive test slope on a cross loaded gully, west aspect, ~2500′. See video in observations.
There is a lot of spatial variability beneath the new snow, mostly consisting of variable wind affected surfaces. These surfaces have gained a lot of strength and are creating a bridging effect above a faceted mid and lower snowpack. Poor structure exists in the mid and lower pack and although unlikely, still has the ability to create destructive avalanches. This set up is low probability, high consequence.
We have likely not seen the last effects from this faceted snow. We may see this layer wake up if we see sufficient load, whether it be a significant snowfall, increase in temperatures, a large wind event with significant snow available for transport, or simply someone finding the sweet spot.
Near surface facets found at 3000′ on Billy Mitchell 1/19. 2 MM grid.
There have been limited observations from interior locations due to low snow at lower elevations. Use caution if you travel in these areas.
If you see something in the mountains that could contribute to this forecast, leave a public observation. The more observations we receive, the better we can tune our forecast.
Be aware that the elevation bands have changed on our website. Low is now below 2000′, Mid is 2000-4000′ and high is 4000′ and above.
Forecast Confidence is Moderate.
Announcements
The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations. It is still possible to trigger windslab avalanches 1-2 feet deep on lee aspect “SE-NW”. New wind slabs are beginning to form as strong north winds continue, and we receive new snow this week. Avoid cross loaded gullies, areas that are experiencing active wind loading and terrain traps. The hazard will begin to increase as we receive new snowfall in the coming days and winds continue.