Valdez

Forecast Expired - 01/14/2019

Above 4,000ftModerate

2,000 to 4,000ftLow

Below 2,000ftLow

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Storm Snow:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Glide Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

The only recently reported avalanche was a natural glide avalanche near 31 mile where the Tsaina River meets Richardson Hwy.

Photo thanks to @hewitt_clyde, There is also a recent video update of glide cracks on our FB page: https://www.facebook.com/valdezavycenter/videos/839450486398343/

 

Please share your field observations including signs of stable snow HERE.

Weather

The most recent NWS rec Forecast can be found HERE:

304 PM AKST Sat Jan 12 2019

The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
                   Tonight      Sun

Temp at 1000`      20 F         30 F

Temp at 3000`      21-30 F      31 F

Chance of precip   100%         80%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.28 in      0.12 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    4-9 in       1-3 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  NE 10-25 mph  SE 0-15 mph

Additional Information

SNOWPACK BIG PICTURE:  The region has been high and dry, cold, and dry, since Jan 5th with moderate+ north winds blowing the New Year’s storms’ snow and building wind slabs. In non windy locations Surface Hoar and Near Surface Facets have formed and may be a problem layer soon. The New Year’s Eve storm brought nearly 2.5″ of SWE to Valdez and almost another 1″ (SWE) on the 2-3rd of January. The rain line was 1200′ during the Jan 2-3 storm (which has now formed a 1-3″ crust locking up all the snow beneath it). That is a LOT of snow and rain in 5 days and it accumulated to over 3′ above 2000′ near Thompson Pass. Both of these storms had little wind. Above 4000′ the snowpack averages over 300cm deep and has good strength and structure (few lemons). Below 4000′, the snowpack is significantly shallower and has problem layers that are currently dormant: facet-crust combos and BASEL facets (all the way to sea level). 

If you get out riding, please send in an observation.

Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM. 

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Announcements

The current avalanche hazard rating is MODERATE above treeline in the Valdez region. If the wind picks up or we get more snow than forecasted the avalanche hazard will rapidly increase. Click FULL FORECAST for more information and please share your field observations HERE.

There are a lot of events coming up in January, check out our Facebook page for the complete list.