Thursday-Sunday 4/5-4/8

Issued: Thu, Apr 05, 2018 at 8AM

Expires: Sun, Apr 08, 2018

Spring Fundraiser coming up Friday April 13 at Tsaina Lodge. Door prizes! Silent auction! Acoustic Avalanche and Jer Ber playing music.

Above 2,500ft Low

1,800 to 2,500ft Low

Below 1,800ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Thursday Friday Saturday & Sunday
1-low 1-low 1-low

DANGER SCALE

 

WIND SLAB:
Elevation:   Above 4000′
Aspect:   Lee of ridges, gullies, ridgetops
Terrain:   Northerly facing terrain above 35< and exposed to winds
Sensitivity:   Non-reactive – Stubborn
Distribution:   Isolated
Likelihood (Human Triggered):   Unlikely
Size:   Small 
Danger Trend:   Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence:    Good

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:     The advisory area experienced a significant wind event March 19-22 and no significant snow since then.  Snow surface conditions are variable and range from wind scoured pencil hard sastrugi, to decomposing unconsolidated particles.  Snow depths generally range from 30-300cm.

Test pits over the last two weeks have shown no signs of propagation.

Check out our public observations and contribute to them here.

 

 

Recent Avalanche Activity

No new observations.

Video of Winds from 3/22/18

 

 

Recent Weather

WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:
Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F): 20 / 28
Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph): VAR / 3-16
Snowfall (in):  0”
WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
Ferry Terminal Thompson Pass
Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction  3 / VAR   18 / VAR
Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction  23 / E  29 / ENE
Temperature Min / Max (*F)  27 / 32  10 / 23

Weather Forecast:   Mostly sunny with light winds through the weekend. In the alpine, temperatures will be below freezing during the day and around 15*F (-9*C) in the evening.  Lower elevation temperatures will stay below or near freezing throughout the next 24 hours.  No snow in the forecast.

Additional Info & Media

SNOW HISTORY: Valdez 3/29 AM Thompson Pass 3/29 AM
24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv. 0”/ 0.0″ 0″ / 0.0″
Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (3/15-19) 19” / 0.41″ 40″ / 1.5″
Current Snow Depth 30″ 56″
March Snow / Water Equiv. 20.5″ / 2.61″ 49″ / 3.6″
Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv. 132.59″ / 27.2” 372″ / 36.6″
Snowload in Valdez 53 lbs/sq. ft.

 

SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (3/4/2018) Depth Snow Water Equivalent
Milepost 2.5 Valdez  32.2″  9″
Milepost 18 42″ 11″
Milepost 29 Worthington Flats 62.4″ 21.2″
Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge 58.4″ 14.2″
This survey is done the first week of each month.

Weather Quicklinks:

 

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • coastal-zone-iconMaritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • intermountain-zone-iconInter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • interior-zone-iconContinental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass

thompson-pass-ski-runs

Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)

climate-zones-topoclimate-zones-satellitegoogle-earth1

Run Map of Thompson Pass Area (Sean Wisner) (2MB download)
VAC Run Map Thompson Pass

NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in Continental Forecasts, Intermountain Forecasts, Maritime Forecasts.

Forecaster: Ryan Van Luit