Problem Details

Wednesday	Thursday	Friday & Saturday
DANGER SCALE

Wind Slab:
Elevation:   Above 4000′
Aspect:   Lee of ridges, gullies, ridge-tops
Terrain:   Northerly facing terrain above 35< and exposed to winds
Sensitivity:   Stubborn
Distribution:   Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered):   Possible
Size:   Small 
Danger Trend:   Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence:    Fair

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:     

The relatively warm daytime temperatures and consistent solar radiation is causing southeast, south, and southwest aspects to thaw.  Rapid warming is likely to occur today below 3000′, and possible above that.  Rapid warming can quickly change the stability of the snowpack and lead to avalanches and cornice fall. Because the surface snow is relatively dense, it’s less susceptible to rapidly thaw compared to snow from a fresh storm.  It’s time to get out of avalanche terrain if you see or experience signs of rapid warming such as: temperatures above freezing, roller balls or pinwheels in the snow, cornice collapse, wet avalanches, or heavy/sticky snowpack.

The advisory area experienced a significant wind event March 19-22, and is in the midst of a smaller but still significant wind event.  These northerly winds scoured loose snow leaving a pencil hard wind layer on the surface. Gullies were filled in with deep, smooth wind slab and snow surface textures vary from sastrugi to patches of softer wind and sun effected snow.  Since the wind event, the temperatures have remained mostly below or near freezing in the alpine.  The wind slabs have been settling and creating stronger bonds.

Test pits over the last 10 days have shown no signs of propagation.

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