Spring Fling FUNdraiser coming up Friday April 13 at Tsaina Lodge. Mark your calendar and get your group of friends excited to dance for a good cause. Door prizes. Silent auction. Acoustic Avalanche and Jer Ber playing music.
Above 2,500ft Low
1,800 to 2,500ft Low
Below 1,800ft Low
Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?
|Tuesday||Wednesday||Thursday & Friday|
Elevation: Above 4000′
Aspect: Lee of ridges, gullies, ridge-tops
Terrain: Northerly facing terrain above 35< and exposed to winds
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Danger Trend: Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Fair
AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor
LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>
The relatively warm daytime temperatures and consistent solar radiation is causing southeast, south, and southwest aspects to thaw. Rapid warming is likely to occur today below 3000′, and possible above that. Rapid warming can quickly change the stability of the snowpack and lead to avalanches and cornice fall. Because the surface snow is relatively dense, it’s less susceptible to rapidly thaw compared to snow from a fresh storm. It’s time to get out of avalanche terrain if you see or experience signs of rapid warming such as: temperatures above freezing, roller balls or pinwheels in the snow, cornice collapse, wet avalanches, or heavy/sticky snowpack.
The advisory area experienced a significant wind event March 19-22, and is in the midst of a smaller but still significant wind event. These northerly winds scoured loose snow leaving a pencil hard wind layer on the surface. Gullies were filled in with deep, smooth wind slab and snow surface textures vary from sastrugi to patches of softer wind and sun effected snow. Since the wind event, the temperatures have remained mostly below or near freezing in the alpine. The wind slabs have been settling and creating stronger bonds.
Test pits over the last 10 days have shown no signs of propagation.
Check out our public observations
Recent Avalanche Activity
No recent activity observed or reported.
|WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:|
|Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):||2 / 11|
|Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph):||NE / 10-30|
|WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
|Ferry Terminal||Thompson Pass|
|Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction||15 / ENE||30 / NE|
|Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction||42 / ENE||53 / NE|
|Temperature Min / Max (*F)||30 / 39||13 / 22|
Weather Forecast: Mostly sunny today. The outflow winds continue, with gusts up to 50 mph through the pass today. Below the pass and around town temperatures will rise into the 40sF during the day and drop below freezing at night. A chance of snow Wednesday, accumulation around a couple inches.
Additional Info & Media
|SNOW HISTORY:||Valdez 4/4 AM||Thompson Pass 4/4 AM|
|24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv.||0”/ 0.0″||0″ / 0.0″|
|Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (3/15-19)||19” / 0.41″||40″ / 1.5″|
|Current Snow Depth||30″||57″ wind scoured|
|April Snow / Water Equiv.||0″ / 0″||0″ / 0″|
|Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv.||132.59″ / 27.2”||372″ / 36.6″|
|Snowload in Valdez||53 lbs/sq. ft.|
|SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (4/3/2018)||Depth||Snow Water Equivalent|
|Milepost 2.5 Valdez||30.2″||10.2″|
|Milepost 29 Worthington Flats||69.8″||23.8″|
|Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge||59.8″||18.6″|
|This survey is done the first week of each month.|
- Northeast Prince William Sound NWS Weather Forecast
- Middleton Island Radar for Valdez area
- GOES Alaska water vapor satellite loop
- NOAA NWS Recreational spot forecast for Thompson Pass
- Thompson Pass MP 25.7 RWIS weather station 2740′ (Mesowest)
- Valdez Marine Ferry Terminal weather station sea level
- Nicks Happy Valley above MP 30 weather station 4200′ (scroll to Nicks Valley)
- Upper Tsaina River Snotel near MP 32 1750′
- Sugarloaf Snotel 551′
- Above Valdez Glacier Cryosphere program weather station 6600′ <map here>
- Valdez Blueberry Weather Plot observations (scroll to bottom: Valdez City)
- More Mountain Weather resources for Alaska
- GFS 16 Day Model for Valdez
- Model Average Meteogram for Valdez
SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:
- Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
- Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
- Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).
Photo of Thompson Pass
Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)
NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.
Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.