Above 2,500ft Moderate
1,800 to 2,500ft Moderate
Below 1,800ft Moderate
Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?
Elevation: Above 1000′
Aspect: Lee of ridges, gullies, ridgetops
Terrain: All terrain exposed to wind, particularly north winds starting Tuesday
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Likely as soon as the north wind howls
Size: Small – Large
Danger Trend: Increasing until winds peak Wednesday night
Forecaster Confidence: Good
AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor
LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>
SNOWPACK DISCUSSION: There’s 1-2 feet of soft snow available for wind transport with strong northerly outflow winds expected to pick up Monday afternoon. Winds are forecast to exceed 70 mph Tuesday and Wednesday (hurricane force).
Excellent Observations <here> thanks to Gareth, Trevor, and Alex.
Several human triggered whumpfs occurred above 2500′ elevation NW aspect above Milepost 34 where tests of the weakness produced an ECTP 13 Q1 result.
Recent Avalanche Activity
March 17: D2 Wind slab, upper elevation, north aspect inter-mountain snow climate zone, accidental human triggered one foot deep, 30 feet wide, ran 450 feet.
March 16: D1 Storm slab, intentional human triggered.
March 14: D2 Storm slab, intentional human triggered.
|WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:|
|Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):||12 / 28|
|Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph):||S-N /5-25|
|WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
|Ferry Terminal||Thompson Pass|
|Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction||0 / ~||15 / variable|
|Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction||4 / N||35 / NE|
|Temperature Min / Max (*F)||32 / 38||22 / 31|
Weather Forecast: Flurries producing a couple more inches of snow Monday. The skies will clear Tuesday bringing hurricane force northerly outflow winds and stunningly beautiful vistas for the remainder of the forecast period.
Additional Info & Media
|SNOW HISTORY:||Valdez 3/18 AM||Thompson Pass 3/19 AM|
|24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv.||0”/ 0.03″||3″ / 0.3″|
|Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (3/9-14)||19” / 0.41″||40″ / 1.5″|
|Current Snow Depth||33″||84″|
|March Snow / Water Equiv.||20″ / 2.56″||47″ / 3.3″|
|Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv.||132.54″ / 26.93”||370″ / 36.3″|
|Snowload in Valdez||55 lbs/sq. ft.|
|SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (3/4/2018)||Depth||Snow Water Equivalent|
|Milepost 2.5 Valdez||32.2″||9″|
|Milepost 29 Worthington Flats||62.4″||21.2″|
|Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge||58.4″||14.2″|
|This survey is done the first week of each month.|
- Northeast Prince William Sound NWS Weather Forecast
- Middleton Island Radar for Valdez area
- GOES Alaska water vapor satellite loop
- NOAA NWS Recreational spot forecast for Thompson Pass
- Thompson Pass MP 25.7 RWIS weather station 2740′ (Mesowest)
- Valdez Marine Ferry Terminal weather station sea level
- Nicks Happy Valley above MP 30 weather station 4200′ (scroll to Nicks Valley)
- Upper Tsaina River Snotel near MP 32 1750′
- Sugarloaf Snotel 551′
- Above Valdez Glacier Cryosphere program weather station 6600′ <map here>
- Valdez Blueberry Weather Plot observations (scroll to bottom: Valdez City)
- More Mountain Weather resources for Alaska
- GFS 16 Day Model for Valdez
- Model Average Meteogram for Valdez
SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:
- Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
- Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
- Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).
Photo of Thompson Pass
Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)
NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.
Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.