Issued: Wed, Mar 14, 2018 at 8AM

Expires: Wed, Mar 14, 2018

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,500 to 2,500ft Considerable

Below 1,500ft Considerable

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Human-triggered slides remain likely today in steep terrain. Our snowpack was rocked pretty hard over the last several days with 2-5″ of precipitation, and a large avalanche cycle ensued. The snowpack below 5000ft is still wet from rains, thawing, and yesterday’s sunshine.

1 meter down, we still have lingering persistent facets above and below the old January ice crust. These weak layers have been well tested by several days of heavy precipitation, but still need a little more time to settle down.

Problem #1: Wet Avalanches

Location: All slopes below 5,000ft, 30 degrees and steeper. Rain fell Monday night up to about 4,000ft. The freezing level rose to 5,500ft Tuesday. A wet slide cycle occurred, and the snowpack is still quite moist. Human-triggered wet slabs and nasty sluffs remain likely on slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Problem #2: Persistent Slab

Location: All aspects above 1,500ft. About a meter down, we still have weak 3-4mm buried surface facets. This facet layer and ice crust underneath has caused many avalanches, and prolific collapsing over the last week. Remote triggering has been a common report. The slab on top could be anywhere from 80-150cm thick, and will be sensitive to human triggering on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. 

Recent Avalanche Activity

Things are settling down after the big storm cycle, but there was a widespread avalanche cycle, mostly size D2-D3. Failure planes appear to have been both above and below the Jan. ice crust, within storm snow, and on depth hoar at the ground in some rocky areas. We’re still getting reports of lots of whumphing, shooting cracks, and slide activity from the last two days.


Recent Weather

Very warm air arrived Tuesday, with freezing levels rising to 5,500ft. Temperatures will slowly cool down over the next few days. Light rain/snow will fall Wednesday, with several clear, calm days expected thereafter.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 8-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline
64″ 0″ / 0.00 57″ / 5.40 4000 -> 3000  light, N 0″/ 0.20 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline
 51″ 0″ / 0.00 38″ / 3.50 4000- > 3000 light, N 0″/ 0.20*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 30″* 0″ / 0.00 * 20″ / 1.60 * 4000 – > 3000 light, N 0″/ 0.20 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!

Posted in Chilkat Pass Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens