Above 2,500ft Considerable
1,800 to 2,500ft Moderate
Below 1,800ft Moderate
Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?
Elevation: Above 2000′
Aspect: Lee of ridges, gullies, ridgetops
Terrain: All terrain exposed to wind
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Likely
Size: Small – Large
Danger Trend: Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Fair
Elevation: Above 2500′
Terrain: 35+ degrees steepness
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Size: Small – Large
Danger Trend: Steady (decreasing? Need evidence)
Forecaster Confidence: Poor
AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor
LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>
SNOWPACK DISCUSSION: The Monday January 12 storm brought at least two feet of snow to the maritime snow climate zone south of the Port. Much less snow accumulated in the continental snow climate zone north of Serendipity at Milepost 46. A foot of snow fell in the inter-mountain snow climate zone north of Thompson Pass.
The cold, clear weather of the past month between the 1/15 and 2/13 storms created a weak layer over the old snow and a poor bond for the new storm snow to adhere to. Furthermore, the old snow is a good, smooth bed surface. Expect easy shear results at the interface of the old snow with the new snow. Strong north winds Tuesday Feb 13 created new windslabs triggering numerous relatively smaller avalanches, size D2, on mostly cross-loaded slopes.
Recent Avalanche Activity
February 13: numerous windslab releases to size D2 triggered from moderate to strong northerly outflow winds, particularly on cross loaded features.
|WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:|
|Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):||20 / 29|
|Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph):||NE / 10-30|
|WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
|Ferry Terminal||Thompson Pass|
|Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction||~ / ~||20 / NE|
|Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction||~ / ~||35 / NE|
|Temperature Min / Max (*F)||34 / 39||20 / 27|
Weather Forecast: Cloudy Wednesday with a chance of snow. More sunshine Thursday into the weekend.
Additional Info & Media
|SNOW HISTORY:||Valdez 2/14 AM||Thompson Pass 2/14 AM|
|24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv.||0”/ 0″||0″ / 0″|
|Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (2/12)||16” / 1.5″||12″ / 1.5″|
|Current Snow Depth||38″||81″|
|February Snow / Water Equiv.||19.6″ / 1.61″||15″ / 1.7″|
|Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv.||97.74″ / 23.65”||305″ / 32″|
|Snowload in Valdez||52 lbs/sq. ft.|
|SNOWFALL at OTHER STATIONS:
LAST 24 HRS / STORM TOTAL (Feb. 12) / STORM WATER EQUIV.:
|Nicks Valley at 4200 ft (in):||” / ” / “|
|Upper Tsaina at 1750 ft (in):||” / ” / “|
|Sugarloaf at 550 ft (in):||” / ” / “|
|SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (2/5/2018)||Depth||Snow Water Equivalent|
|Milepost 2.5 Valdez||22″||7.6″|
|Milepost 29 Worthington Flats||62″||19.4″|
|Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge||52.6″||16.4″|
|This survey is done the first week of each month.|
- Northeast Prince William Sound NWS Weather Forecast
- Middleton Island Radar for Valdez area
- GOES Alaska water vapor satellite loop
- NOAA NWS Recreational spot forecast for Thompson Pass
- Thompson Pass MP 25.7 RWIS weather station 2740′ (Mesowest)
- Valdez Marine Ferry Terminal weather station sea level
- Nicks Happy Valley above MP 30 weather station 4200′ (scroll to Nicks Valley)
- Upper Tsaina River Snotel near MP 32 1750′
- Sugarloaf Snotel 551′
- Above Valdez Glacier Cryosphere program weather station 6600′ <map here>
- Valdez Blueberry Weather Plot observations (scroll to bottom: Valdez City)
- More Mountain Weather resources for Alaska
- GFS 16 Day Model for Valdez
- Model Average Meteogram for Valdez
SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:
- Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
- Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
- Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).
Photo of Thompson Pass
Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)
NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.
Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.