Issued: Mon, Jan 01, 2018 at 8AM

Expires: Mon, Jan 01, 2018

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,500 to 2,500ft Considerable

Below 1,500ft Moderate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Problem #1: Storm Snow

Today’s new snowfall is upside-down: cold and weak underneath with a cohesive slab on top. It sits atop a variable surface of crusts, hard slab, and patches of surface hoar. Bonding of this new snow will be poor and natural avalanches are likely in wind loaded areas. South winds will be increasing this afternoon, building thick slabs on north aspects and cross-loading terrain features/gullies on other aspects. On slopes steeper than 25 degrees, anywhere the new snow is wind-affected, expect dangerous storm slab conditions. 

Problem #2: Deep Slab

We still have 2-4mm depth hoar at the ground, beneath a hard midpack. During the last storm several slides ran on this layer as a heavy load of new precipitation placed strain on it. Now that things have settled down, triggering this deep layer will be difficult, but still possible. This is especially true in thin/rocky areas which will act as trigger points, and may cause remote triggering and wide propagation. The best way to manage this danger is to stick to areas with a deeper snowpack, make sure your safe areas are well-outside the danger zone, and include a wide safety margin. Careful group management is crucial right now, as any slides that break this deep could be large, and break wider than expected.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent natural avalanche activity from several days ago includes:

  • Isolated D1-D2 wind slabs at the top of the snowpack, on steep slopes above treeline, all aspects.
  • Isolated full-depth D2-D3 hard slabs that came down during last week’s wet, wild weather.  On steep slopes above treeline, all aspects.

Recent Weather

The weather pattern is changing, with a strong warm up and continuous storms coming in through Wednesday night. Snow levels will rise to near 1,500ft Monday evening as strong south winds push in.  Total snowfall of 20-30″ is likely above the rainline.  

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline
26″ 8″ / 0.50 8″ / 0.50 0 -> 1500  mod, var 8″/ 0.50 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline
 29″  6″ / 0.40  6″ / 0.40 0 -> 1000 mod, var  6″ / 0.40 *
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 16″ * 4″ / 0.25 * 4″ / 0.25 * 0 -> 1000 mod, var  4″ / 0.25 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

A few notes:

  • We had an extremely dry, cold early-season. Total precipitation October 1st – November 28th was around 30% of normal. Snow depths are between 45-130cm in most areas.  Variability is high due to persistent dry, windy conditions.
  • Temperatures hovered around 0 – 15°F for almost all of November. This has caused faceting of the thin snowpack and built up 3-5mm depth hoar at the ground in all zones.

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!


We will be providing an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 Class this winter in Haines, February 23-25, 2018

More info and signup here.

 

Posted in Lutak Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens