Monday-Thursday 1/1-1/4

Issued: Mon, Jan 01, 2018 at 8AM

Expires: Thu, Jan 04, 2018

Heartfelt New Year gratitude toward all our supporters.

Danger increasing with storm:
Monday – Moderate
Tuesday – Considerable
Wednesday – High

Above 2,500ft Moderate

1,800 to 2,500ft Moderate

Below 1,800ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDESDAY & THURSDAY

DANGER SCALE

WIND SLAB:
Elevation:
 Above 2000 feet elevation
Aspect:
 South and west Sun & Mon to northerly Tuesday
Terrain: 
  All terrain exposed to wind
Sensitivity:
   Responsive
Distribution: 
Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered): 
Possible
Size: 
Small – Large
Danger Trend:
   Increasing 
Forecaster Confidence:
   Fair

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

LIST OF AVALANCHE PROBLEMS <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

 

Expect new windslabs with the storm.

Find more photos and observations at the bottom of the page. Sharing your observations creates an informed community that everyone benefits from at some point.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No recent avalanche activity observed or reported.

Recent Weather

WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:
Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):  25 / 30
Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph): E / 10-25
Snowfall (in):  2
WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
Ferry Terminal Thompson Pass
Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction   4 / E  20 / SE
Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction  11 / NE  30 / SE
Temperature Min / Max (*F)  24 / 31  14 / 28

Weather Forecast:    Storm intensifies Monday night accumulating as much as two feet or more above the snow-line by mid-week. Rain possible Tuesday at sea level.

Additional Info & Media

SNOW HISTORY: Valdez 1/1 AM Thompson Pass 1/1 AM
24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv. ”/ “ 6″ / 0.5″
Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (1/1) ” / ″ 6″ / 0.5″
Current Snow Depth 65″
January Snow / Water Equiv. ″ / ″ 6″ / 0.5″
Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv. 64″ / 16.3” 213″ / 24.7″
Snowload in Valdez 42 lbs/sq. ft.

 

SNOWFALL at OTHER STATIONS:
LAST 24 HRS (12/24 AM)/STORM TOTAL (12/19)/STORM WATER EQUIV.:
Nicks Valley at 4200 ft (in): 0″ / 10″ / ?”
Upper Tsaina at 1750 ft (in): 0″ / 8″ / ?”
Sugarloaf at 550 ft (in): 0″ 12″ / 1″
SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (2/1/2017) Depth Snow Water Equivalent
Milepost 2.5 Valdez  ″  ″
Milepost 18
Milepost 29 Worthington Flats
Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge
This survey is done the first week of each month.

Weather Quicklinks:

 

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • coastal-zone-iconMaritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • intermountain-zone-iconInter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • interior-zone-iconContinental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass

thompson-pass-ski-runs

Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)

climate-zones-topoclimate-zones-satellitegoogle-earth1

Run Map of Thompson Pass Area (Sean Wisner) (2MB download)
VAC Run Map Thompson Pass

NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in Continental Forecasts, Intermountain Forecasts, Maritime Forecasts.
Pete Carter

Forecaster: Pete Carter