Issued: Wed, Nov 29, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Wed, Nov 29, 2017

We will be providing an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 Class this winter in Haines, February 23-25, 2018

More info and signup here.

Above 2,500ft High

1,500 to 2,500ft High

Below 1,500ft High

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Backcountry conditions will be dangerous today.

Problem #1: Storm Snow

3-6″ fell last night in this zone, with a strong warming trend and 4-6″more by tomorrow morning. Southeast winds are picking up and heavily loading North-ish aspects and cross loading terrain features/gullies elsewhere. This heavy, moist new snow is sitting atop cold, weak low-density fluff from a few days ago. There are a few new and recent storm interfaces that will be unstable today. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely within the new snow.

Problem #2: Persistent Slab

Beneath the recent wind slabs that built over the last week or two, we have a layer of weak facetted snow sitting above an ice crust. This failure plane, about 30-80cm deep, may re-activate given the heavy new load of snow. Smaller avalanches may step-down to this layer as well. Any failures this deep will propagate widely with high consequences. In addition, a layer of depth hoar at the ground may also collapse and cause large, deep avalanches.

Recent Avalanche Activity

SS-AR-D2-R3-S | A snowboarder-triggered D2, Nadahini-area, 10-28-2017

October 28th: First rider-triggered slide reported from the peak north of Nadahini (“Sunny Bunny”). D2 soft slab ran in storm snow from Oct 26-27. Nobody caught or injured. [ SS-AR-D2-R3-S ] South aspect @ 6,200ft.

Small – Moderate natural avalanche activity is occurring during/after storms. So far it has been mostly loose-snow slides, with a few slab avalanches as well.

Recent Weather

strong front hit Tuesday night-Wednesday, with 12-18″ likely. Snow levels will rise to around 1,000ft Wednesday after the bulk of the storm has already hit. Expect snow levels to drop back down to sea level from Wed. night on, with several more inches of accumulation. Friday-Saturday should be mostly clear with light winds.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline

26″

8″ / 0.65 14″ / 0.95 1000  mod, S  9″ / 0.70 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline

 24″

 6″ / 0.50  9″ / 0.65 1000 mod, S  9″ / 0.70 *
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 16″ * 4″ / 0.30 * 6″ / 0.40 * 900 mod, S  5″ / 0.40 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

A few notes:

  • We had an extremely dry, cold early-season. Total precipitation October 1st – November 28th was around 30% of normal. Snow depths are between 45-100cm in most areas.  Variability is high due to persistent dry, windy conditions.
  • Temperatures hovered around 0 – 15°F for almost all of November. This has caused faceting of the thin snowpack and built up 3-5mm depth hoar at the ground in all zones. This will be a weak base to hold up future heavy snows. Keep this in mind as November progresses and snow depths increase. This will likely turn into a deep-persistent slab problem.

Start the season with fresh batteries in your beacon, and practice with your beacon, shovel, and probe.

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!

Posted in Chilkat Pass Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens