Issued: Tue, Nov 28, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Tue, Nov 28, 2017

We will be providing an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 Class this winter in Haines, February 23-25, 2018

More info and signup here.

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,500 to 2,500ft None

Below 1,500ft None

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Above treeline, human-triggered avalanches are possible on any slope steeper than 25 degrees, but most likely on wind loaded slopes, convexities, and steep gullies. The main concern will be new storm snow and wind slabs from last week that sit at the top of the snowpack. These slabs (10-50cm thick) are cold, brittle, and tender, sitting on a layer of weak facets.

Our current alpine snowpack is characterized thus: 3-5mm depth hoar at the ground, with a pencil-hard rain crust above, and varying cold wind-packed layers above that. The upper slab has been tender and reactive, sliding on planar crystals and facets above the ice crust. Variability is high, so be sure to evaluate each slope, and leave a wide safety margin.

The takeaway: our snowpack is thin, highly variable from place to place, and generally weak with poor structure. 

Snowpit from Nov. 11th near the Chilkat Pass. A similar setup has been observed in the Lutak zone above treeline. Click for larger version.

A few notes:

  • Avalanche season is here. We’ve already had a significant skier-triggered avalanche reported (see below).
  • We have an extreme lack of snow so far this season. Total precipitation since October 1st is at 38% of normal. Snow depths are around 30cm at 3,500ft, ranging up to 100cm in wind loaded areas above 5,000ft.  Variability is high due to persistent dry, windy conditions.
  • Temperatures above treeline have been around 0 – 5°F. This has caused faceting of the thin snowpack and built up 3-5mm depth hoar. This will be a weak base to hold up future heavy snows. Keep this in mind as November progresses and snow depths increase. This will likely turn into a deep-persistent slab problem.

Start the season with fresh batteries in your beacon, and practice with your beacon, shovel, and probe.

If you get out on the snow, send in your observations!

Recent Avalanche Activity

SS-AR-D2-R3-S | A snowboarder-triggered D2, Nadahini-area, 10-28-2017

October 28th: First rider-triggered slide reported from the peak north of Nadahini (“Sunny Bunny”). D2 soft slab ran in storm snow from Oct 26-27. Nobody caught or injured. [ SS-AR-D2-R3-S ] South aspect @ 6,200ft.

Recent Weather

A short break in the weather on Tuesday will lead to a strong front Tuesday night, with 12-18″ possible. Snow levels will rise to around 1,000ft Wednesday after the bulk of the storm has already hit. Expect snow levels to drop back down to sea level from Wed. night on, with several more inches of accumulation.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline

23″

6″ / 0.30 6″ / 0.30 0  light, var  16″ / 0.80 *
Flower Mountain @ treeline

 16″

 3″ / 0.15  3″ / 0.15 0 light, var  12″ / 0.60 *
Chilkat Pass @ 3,500ft
 12″ * 2″ / 0.10 * 2″ / 0.10 0 light, var  6″ / 0.30 *

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Info & Media

Posted in Chilkat Pass Forecasts.
Erik Stevens

Forecaster: Erik Stevens