Warming temperatures and light wind will increase the afternoon hazard on solar aspects….don’t be out when the mountains start shedding their layers.
Above 2,500ft Considerable
1,800 to 2,500ft Considerable
Below 1,800ft Considerable
Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?
|FRIDAY||SATURDAY||SUNDAY & MONDAY|
Elevation: Below 5500′
Aspect: East in AM, South all day, then West in PM
Terrain: Steep terrain near rocks and vegetation.
Sensitivity: Touchy when warmed.
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Danger Trend: Increasing quickly each day with warming temperatures, falling with freezing at night
Forecaster Confidence: Good
Terrain: corniced ridgelines
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Size: Small to Large
Danger Trend: Increasing
Forecaster Confidence: Fair
AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor
AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>
Maritime (Coastal) Specific: Cooler temps will linger through Thursday, but as clouds move in, expect temperatures to rise into the weekend….leading to greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. Continuously monitor the freezing level and weakening of the snowpack around you. Think about how the wind, if any, is affecting the terrain surrounding you. Ask yourself, “Are the winds keeping the snow around and above me cold?” “How long has that face been baking and is it losing its bonds?” It is all about finding that right balance when the snow has just softened up and hasn’t turned into complete mashed potatoes (isothermal).
Cornices have also been falling recently, which could trigger secondary, deep avalanches below. And don’t forget about the high elevation (4000’+) northerly aspects, which are still holding good powder….seek those out, but think about the terrain you cross to get there.
Sharing your observations creates an informed community that everyone benefits from at some point.
Recent Avalanche Activity
Maritime (Coastal) Specific:
- April 17 The Wall/Tomahawk rockfall resulting in D3+ avalanche.
- April 13-16 More wet loose activity in the afternoon on steep solar affected slopes
- April 18th “Things are coming unglued out there” Photo: Jeremy Martin
- Large avalanche on, “The Wall/Tomahawk” caused by rockfall Photo: Jed Workman
|WEATHER FORECAST for NEXT 24 HRS at 3,000 ft:|
|Temperature Forecast (Min/Max *F):||15 / 32|
|Ridgetop Wind Forecast (direction/mph):||NE / 0-15|
|Snowfall (in/water equivalent):||0″ / 0″|
|WIND & TEMPERATURE
PAST 24 hours
|Ferry Terminal||Thompson Pass|
|Average Wind Speed (mph) / Direction||3 / Var||12 / E|
|Max Wind Gust (mph) / Direction||7 / NE||22 / ENE|
|Temperature Min / Max (*F)||34 / 49||25 / 33|
Weather Forecast: Slow increase in cloudiness with rising overall temperatures through the weekend. It is possible for a dabble of moisture to hit us on Monday.
Additional Info & Media
|SNOW HISTORY:||Valdez 4/21 AM||Thompson Pass 4/20 AM|
|24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv.||0”/0.0″||0″ /0″|
|Storm Snow /Water Equiv. (3/26-4/9)||16.9″ /4.1″||24″ /2.4″|
|Current Snow Depth||15″||39″|
|April Snow / Water Equiv.||trace″ /1.82″ rain||8″ / 0.8″|
|Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv.||239.8″ /24.47”||327″ / 31.4″|
|Snowload in Valdez||65.0 lbs/sq. ft.|
|SNOWFALL at OTHER STATIONS:
LAST 24 HRS (4/20 AM)/STORM TOTAL (3/27-4/6)/STORM WATER EQUIV.:
|Nicks Valley at 4200 ft (in):||0″ / ~16″ / ?”|
|Upper Tsaina at 1750 ft (in):||0″ / ?” / 1.2+”|
|Sugarloaf at 550 ft (in):||0″/ 20+rain” / 2.8″|
|SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (4/2/2017)||Depth||Snow Water Equivalent|
|Milepost 2.5 Valdez||41.9″||11.9″|
|Milepost 29 Worthington Flats||62.2″||19.6″|
|Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge||46.3″||12.5″|
|This survey is done the first week of each month.|
- Northeast Prince William Sound NWS Weather Forecast
- Middleton Island Radar for Valdez area
- GOES Alaska water vapor satellite loop
- NOAA NWS Recreational spot forecast for Thompson Pass
- Thompson Pass MP 25.7 RWIS weather station 2740′ (Mesowest)
- Valdez Marine Ferry Terminal weather station sea level
- Nicks Happy Valley above MP 30 weather station 4200′ (scroll to Nicks Valley)
- Upper Tsaina River Snotel near MP 32 1750′
- Sugarloaf Snotel 551′
- Above Valdez Glacier Cryosphere program weather station 6600′ <map here>
- Valdez Blueberry Weather Plot observations (scroll to bottom: Valdez City)
- More Mountain Weather resources for Alaska
- GFS 16 Day Model for Valdez
- Model Average Meteogram for Valdez
SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:
- Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
- Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
- Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).
Photo of Thompson Pass
Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)
NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.
Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.