Wednesday – Saturday 3/29-4/1

Issued: Wed, Mar 29, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Sat, Apr 01, 2017

Conservative terrain choices and attentive snowpack observation will reduce your risk to triggering a persistent avalanche problem. Thinner areas above terrain traps should be avoided.

Avalanche Center Tsaina Lodge Spring Full Moon Bon Fire FUNraiser

Friday April 14 presenting Acoustic Avalanche

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,800 to 2,500ft Moderate

Below 1,800ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY & SATURDAY

DANGER SCALE

 

STORM SLAB:

Elevation: All
Aspect: All
Terrain: All
Sensitivity: Responsive
Distribution: Widespread
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Size: Small – Large
Danger Trend: Increasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good

PERSISTENT:
Elevation:
  Above 2500′
Aspect:
more likely on northerly aspects
Terrain:
unsupported steep slopes with thin coverage
Sensitivity:
  Stubborn
Distribution:
  Isolated where windslab exists over facets/depth hoar
Likelihood (Human Triggered):
   Possible
Size:
  Small – Large
Danger Trend:
   Steady
Forecaster Confidence:
  Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:

Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

Continental (Interior) Specific:  

Yesterday, heavy snowfall (1”/hour) was falling at 46 Mile slowing decreasing into the interior with only a dusting in Kenny Lake. The areas closer to the ocean have seen much more precipitation out of this storm compared to the more interior areas. You are most likely to trigger a storm slab today with a chance of it stepping down to a persistent slab. The interior region, and even some parts of the intermountain region, have a persistent weak layer that has the potential to release the entire season’s snow pack in a catastrophic avalanche. This persistent weak layer is going to be put to the test with the new snow load over the next week.

The large chute on the east face of Mt. Tiekel was reported to have avalanched with in the last 24 hours with dirt in the debris.

Find more photos and observations at the bottom of the page. Sharing your observations creates an informed community.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Continental (Interior) Specific: 

  • March 28: The large chute on the east face of Mt. Tiekel was reported to have avalanched with dirt in the debris pile.
  •  March 25: reports of upper elevation (>4500′ elevation) human triggered windslab to size D1.5 to a foot thick releasing off steep slopes, mostly in the Maritime to Intermountain areas
  • March 24: significant collapses, as large as whole basins whumphing, in areas on the northerly and easterly outreaches of our Inter-mountain zone, and into the Continental zone.

Recent Weather

See Maritime Zone for updated weather.

Additional Info & Media

Weather Quicklinks:

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • coastal-zone-iconMaritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • intermountain-zone-iconInter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • interior-zone-iconContinental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass

thompson-pass-ski-runs

Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)

climate-zones-topoclimate-zones-satellitegoogle-earth1

Run Map of Thompson Pass Area (Sean Wisner) (2MB download)
VAC Run Map Thompson Pass

NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in Continental Forecasts.
Kyle Sobek

Forecaster: Kyle Sobek