Problem Details

WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY & SATURDAY
DANGER SCALE

STORM SLAB:

Elevation: All
Aspect: All
Terrain: All
Sensitivity: Responsive
Distribution: Widespread
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Possible
Size: Small – Large
Danger Trend: Increasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good

PERSISTENT:
Elevation:   Above 2500′
Aspect: more likely on northerly aspects
Terrain: unsupported steep slopes with thin coverage
Sensitivity:   Stubborn
Distribution:   Isolated where windslab exists over facets/depth hoar
Likelihood (Human Triggered):   Possible
Size:   Small – Large
Danger Trend:   Steady
Forecaster Confidence:   Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:

Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

Continental (Interior) Specific:  

Yesterday, heavy snowfall (1”/hour) was falling at 46 Mile slowing decreasing into the interior with only a dusting in Kenny Lake. The areas closer to the ocean have seen much more precipitation out of this storm compared to the more interior areas. You are most likely to trigger a storm slab today with a chance of it stepping down to a persistent slab. The interior region, and even some parts of the intermountain region, have a persistent weak layer that has the potential to release the entire season’s snow pack in a catastrophic avalanche. This persistent weak layer is going to be put to the test with the new snow load over the next week.

The large chute on the east face of Mt. Tiekel was reported to have avalanched with in the last 24 hours with dirt in the debris.

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