Friday – Monday 3/24-27

Issued: Fri, Mar 24, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Mon, Mar 27, 2017

 

Constantly evaluate the upper snowpack conditions as outflow winds continue out of the NE and temperatures rise combined with direct solar input (weakening snow bonds).

Join the VAC Basecamp FREE classes every day this week in the One Love Lot (MP 29.5). Check our Facebook page for more details!

Above 2,500ft Moderate

1,800 to 2,500ft Low

Below 1,800ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY & MONDAY

DANGER SCALE

 

 

WIND SLAB:
Elevation:  
Above 2000′
Aspect:
   Lee to northerly winds
Terrain:
 Near ridgelines, rollovers, and gully walls
Sensitivity:
  Stubborn
Distribution:
 Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered):
 Possible
Size:
 Small – Large
Danger Trend:
  Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence:
   Fair

DRY LOOSE:
Elevation:   Above 2000′
Aspect:  All
Terrain:   Steep: >35*
Sensitivity:   Responsive
Distribution:   Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered):   Possible
Size:   Small
Danger Trend:   Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence:   Good

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

intermountain-zone-iconInter-Mountain (Transitional) Specific: 

The last storm that hit us Sunday to Monday was enthusiastically welcomed after a parched spell of no precipitation. There was significant variation of new snow throughout the region. Cordova reported 8 inches at sea level Monday AM, with 2 feet at 1000′, while the town of Valdez received 2 inches with 1 foot at the pass, and trace amounts of snow at 56 Mile.

Since the storm, many available and willing testers reported numerous natural and skier triggered soft slab avalanches on Monday and Tuesday….mostly smaller in the destructive spectrum and deeper slabs the closer you get to Cordova.  North winds picked up Tuesday and have stripped and moved snow into firmer slabs in exposed terrain features. While the unconsolidated snow seems to be bonding quite well to older firm surfaces, the newer soft slabs formed on top of these weak snow crystals are more concerning, especially with warmer temperatures and direct solar influence. Evaluate the upper snow surfaces before committing. Older, pre-storm snow, has not seen any avalanche activity as of late.

Find more photos and observations at the bottom of the page. Sharing your observations creates an informed community that everyone benefits from at some point.

Recent Avalanche Activity

intermountain-zone-iconInter-Mountain (Transitional) Specific:  

  • Small skier triggered slide in Nick’s, size D1, west facing, wind loaded slope.

  • Bare glacier ice exposed in Nick’s

  • A very thin Berlin Wall

Recent Weather

See Maritime Zone for updated weather.

Additional Info & Media

Weather Quicklinks:

  • NWS forecast for Northeast Prince William Sound <here>
  • NOAA NWS spot forecast for Thompson Pass <here>
  • Thompson Pass RWIS weather station <here>
  • MP 30 Nicks (Happy) Valley weather station at 4200 feet <here> (scroll to Nicks Valley)
  • Valdez Glacier UAF weather station at 6600 feet <data here> <map here>
  • Further weather resources <here>

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • coastal-zone-iconMaritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • intermountain-zone-iconInter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • interior-zone-iconContinental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass

thompson-pass-ski-runs

Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)

climate-zones-topoclimate-zones-satellitegoogle-earth1

Run Map of Thompson Pass Area (Sean Wisner) (2MB download)
VAC Run Map Thompson Pass

NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in Intermountain Forecasts.

Forecaster: Kevin Salys