Problem Details

WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY & SATURDAY
DANGER SCALE

WIND SLAB:
Elevation:   Above 2000′
Aspect:  Lee to northerly winds
Terrain:   Near ridges, gullies, rollovers
Sensitivity: Stubborn
Distribution:   Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered): Unlikely
Size:   Small – Large
Danger Trend:   Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence:   Fair

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

Maritime (Coastal) Specific: 

Valdez has not seen significant snowfall for one month as of today. 13 of the last 16 days had 50 mph wind gusts, approaching 100 mph at the beginning of this month. This wind cycle has completely scoured and stripped all peaks and ridges of their snow. Glacial ice has been exposed in areas normally visible mid summer. Entrances to, “Normal” ski runs aren’t even fathomable. There is virtually NO soft snow for skiing, snowboarding, or snowmachining in the entire Valdez region. Human triggered avalanches are still possible. If you do decide to recreate in the mountains today, the snow will most likely be hard and sketchy. Skiers, know self arrest skills. Snowmachiners, be prepared to total your sled.  In regards to avalanches ask your self, “what lies underneath this hard snow?” If it’s sugar (facets), which it probably is, it can avalanche. You are most likely to trigger this slab where the snowpack is the thinnest. The last reported human triggered avalanche was March 11th.

Steep, low elevation southerlies melting out.

Thompson Pass gap winds still scouring into the snowpack.

Rain Crust from mid Feb.

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