Thursday-Sunday 2/23-26

Issued: Thu, Feb 23, 2017 at 8AM

Expires: Sun, Feb 26, 2017

Stay tuned in to changing snowpack conditions at the surface.

Expect new windslabs drifted onto a variety of slopes by variable winds. These are likely forming on top of widespread weak crystals from our long clear, cold spell.

Above 2,500ft Low

1,800 to 2,500ft Low

Below 1,800ft Low

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY & SUNDAY

DANGER SCALE

 

 

WIND SLAB:
Elevation:   
Above 3000′
Aspect:
   Various aspects due to shifting winds
Terrain:
 Near ridgelines, rollovers, and gully walls
Sensitivity:
 Responsive
Distribution:
 Specific
Likelihood (Human Triggered):
  Possible
Size:
 Small – Large
Danger Trend:
 Steady
Forecaster Confidence:
  Fair

AVALANCHE PROBLEM SCALE DESCRIPTORS:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

AVALANCHE PROBLEM TOOLBOX <here>

SNOWPACK DISCUSSION:

intermountain-zone-iconInter-Mountain (Transitional) Specific: 

Last week, 30″ of heavy snow, mixed with rain below ~3000′, fell around the Thompson Pass region. A widespread avalanche cycle occurred during this storm, flushing out any persistent weak layers deeper in the snow pack. Make a mental note of where these large avalanches occurred, for areas that didn’t slide could still harbor problems.

Over the long calm, clear and cold spell last weekend, widespread surface hoar and near surface facets formed throughout our region. As winds picked up recently, investigate how these weak crystals are reacting once they get buried. Evaluate and test new slabs readily, for these buried crystals can persist and lead to problems for extended periods of time….leading to unpredictable and large avalanches.

Crudbusters Surface Hoar to 6mm

Find more photos and observations at the bottom of the page. Sharing your observations creates an informed community that everyone benefits from at some point.

Recent Avalanche Activity

intermountain-zone-iconInter-Mountain (Transitional) Specific:  

Observed Feb. 18:

  • Numerous large(D3+) Wet Slab avalanches ran during the storm last week in the Tsania Valley that hit the valley floor
  • Natural Sluffs (Loose Snow) Observed on North Aspects in the Tsania Valley(before the glacier), while no natural activity was observed in the Tonsina Glacier area

Observed Feb 16:

  • Many mid storm avalanches released up to D2.5 off of steep faces: Several on north face of Odyssey, School Bus, Vertigo, Snatch, 40.5 Mile Ridge/Wilburs

Below Vertigo, crown filled in similar to Snatch and School Bus.

School Bus and North Odyssey Gully debris.

  • Extensive shallow slab releases on mid+ elevation southerly aspects below Bald Boy to Hippy Ridge (MP 29-37): seemed to be pulling out on persistent weaknesses: likely surface hoar or near surface facets formed last week.

Below Baldy & Little Girls

Thin crowns at MP 33

Hippy Ridge: Widespread mid-elevation activity…weak layer likey recently buried surface hoar or facets. Upper elevations had blown back in.

  • Large deeper avalanche releases on basal weaknesses at the ground below Max Low and Wilbur’s on 40.5 Mile Ridge

Max Low released at rocks. Pit dug on Feb 8 right next to this crown.

Wilburs: lower central slab was deeper and looked like it pulled out to rocks.

Reported Feb.13-15 during the storm:

  • Large avalanches at Milepost 38, 42, and 50

Recent Weather

See Maritime Zone for updated weather.

Additional Info & Media

Weather Quicklinks:

  • NWS forecast for Northeast Prince William Sound <here>
  • NOAA NWS spot forecast for Thompson Pass <here>
  • Thompson Pass RWIS weather station <here>
  • MP 30 Nicks (Happy) Valley weather station at 4200 feet <here> (scroll to Nicks Valley)
  • Valdez Glacier UAF weather station at 6600 feet <data here> <map here>
  • Further weather resources <here>

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • coastal-zone-iconMaritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • intermountain-zone-iconInter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • interior-zone-iconContinental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass

thompson-pass-ski-runs

Interactive Map of Valdez Forecast Areas w/ Many Resource Layers (Trevor Grams)

climate-zones-topoclimate-zones-satellitegoogle-earth1

Run Map of Thompson Pass Area (Sean Wisner) (2MB download)
VAC Run Map Thompson Pass

NEWS: Our region is “one of the snowiest places on earth” – Serendipity / Rendezvous snowfall record set in 1963 <here>.

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in Intermountain Forecasts.

Forecaster: Kevin Salys