Friday-Monday

Issued: Fri, Nov 11, 2016 at 8AM

Expires: Mon, Nov 14, 2016

Expect winter conditions – poor visibility will limit your ability to read terrain and see early season hazards such as rocks.
Put your winter brain on:

  • Carry avalanche rescue gear and practice with it.
  • Look for training opportunities to help you refresh on how to plan and prepare for travel in avalanche terrain.
  • Check the forecast and share your observations.

Above 2,500ft Considerable

1,800 to 2,500ft Moderate

Below 1,800ft None

Degrees of Avalanche Danger ?

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. Considerable
4. High
5. Extreme

Avalanche Danger Rose ?

Avalanche Problems ?

Problem Details

Windslab Avalanches
Where: Ridgelines & cross-loaded slopes above 3000 feet lee to prevailing SE winds
Sensitivity: Responsive
Distribution: Isolated
Likelihood: Possible.
Size: Small to Medium (D1-2)
Danger Trend: Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Fair

Storm Snow Avalanches
Where: All aspects; Deeper and drier with elevation.
Sensitivity: Responsive
Distribution: Widespread
Likelihood: Possible.
Size: Small to Medium (D1-2)
Danger Trend: Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Fair.

Avalanche Problem Scale Descriptors:
Sensitivity: Non-reactive, Stubborn, Responsive, Touchy
Distribution: Isolated, Specific, Widespread
Likelihood: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Nearly Certain
Size: Small, Large, Very Large (size scale <here>)
Danger Trend: Increasing, Steady, Decreasing
Forecaster Confidence: Good, Fair, Poor

List of Avalanche Problems <here>

Recent Avalanche Activity

No new activity observed

Recent Weather

We have a low pressure system spinning through Prince William Sound this week. Expect rain, heavy at times, below 2000′ with precipitation accumulation as much as 2″ through Saturday. South-southeast wind to 30 mph. Freezing line should lower as storm passes.

Additional Info & Media

SNOW HISTORY: Valdez 11/7 AM Thompson Pass 11/9  AM
Current Snow Depth 16″ 9″
24 Hour Snow / Water Equiv. trace” /0.2″ 2″ / 0.25″
Storm Snow / Water Equiv. (11/6) 2” / 0.4” 8″ / 0.4″
November Snow / Water Equiv. ?″ / ?″ 12″ / 1.3″
Total Winter Snowfall / Water Equiv. ?″ / ?” 35″ / 3.7″
Snowload in Valdez ?
SNOW DEPTH & WATER SURVEY (date) Depth Snow Water Equivalent
Milepost 2.5 Valdez  ?″  ?″
Milepost 18 ?″ ?″
Milepost 29 Worthington Flats ?″ ?″
Milepost 37 Tsaina River bridge ?″ ?″
 This survey is done the first week of each month.

Weather Quicklinks:

  • NWS forecast for Northeast Prince William Sound <here>
  • NOAA NWS spot forecast for Thompson Pass <here>
  • Valdez Glacier UAF weather station at 6600 feet <data here> <map here>.
  • Thompson Pass weather <here>.
  • Further weather resources <here>

SNOW CLIMATE ZONES:

  • Maritime (Coastal) – from the Port of Valdez to Thompson Pass, all waters flowing into Valdez Arm and everything south of Marshall Pass.
  • Inter-mountain (Transitional) – between Thompson Pass and Rendezvous Lodge.
  • Continental (Interior) – the dry north side of the Chugach (north of 46 Mile, including the Tonsina River).

Photo of Thompson Pass <here>

Run map of some of the forecast area <here>

Free smart phone avalanche forecasts at: http://www.avalancheforecasts.com/

Posted in VAC Forecasts.

Forecaster: Kevin Salys