Valdez

Forecast Expired

Above 4,000ftConsiderable

2,000 to 4,000ftConsiderable

Below 2,000ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

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Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Persistent Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Wet Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Glide Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

On Jan 25th, a small natural soft slab was reported in very steep terrain low in Loveland Basin.

Also on Jan 25th several small wet loose avalanches are easily observable in Keystone Canyon, running down to road level.

Please share your field observations including signs of stable snow HERE.

Weather

The most recent NWS rec Forecast can be found HERE:

304 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
                   Tonight      Sat

Temp at 1000`      22 F         27 F

Temp at 3000`      26 F         23 F

Chance of precip   90%          40%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.17 in      0.04 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    2 in         trace

Snow level         500 ft       sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  S 8-15 mph   S 1-7 mph

Additional Information

SNOWPACK BIG PICTURE: The older snowpack is quite stable (good strength and structure). Any new snow since Jan 12 is likely to be sitting on widespread facets and surface hoar and is currently UNSTABLE. Above 3500′ there could easily be 2′ of new slabs sitting on these buried weak layers.

Recent snowpack history, from top to bottom:

Jan 23-current: multiple days of warm and wet with periods of rain up to 2500′.

Jan 13-22: was mostly clear and dry with light to moderate north winds. Widespread Surface Hoar growth and Near Surface Faceting.

Jan 12-13: 3-10″ of new snow with little wind.

Jan 4-12: was VERY cold and dry: moderate winds and wind chill reaching -50F. Pockets of surface hoar and widespread Near Surface Faceting.

Dec 30-Jan 3: The New Year’s Eve storm brought nearly 2.5″ of SWE to Valdez and almost another 1″ (SWE) on the 2-3rd of January. The rain line was 1200′ during the Jan 2-3 storm, forming a 1-3″ crust locking up all the snow beneath it. These storms accumulated over 3′ above 2000′ near Thompson Pass. Both of these storms had little wind.

Above 4000′ the snowpack averages well over 300cm deep and has good strength and structure (few lemons). Below 4000′, the snowpack is significantly shallower and has old problem layers that are bonding well (rounding) and currently dormant: facet-crust combos and BASEL facets (all the way to sea level). 

 

If you get out riding, please send in an observation.

Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM. 

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Alerts

CAUTION: Saturday is going to lure us into avalanche terrain with improving visibility and fresh powder HOWEVER; the current hazard rating for the Valdez region is CONSIDERABLE, above treeline, for all 3 forecast areas. Rider triggered avalanches are likely in steep terrain: slab avalanches above the rain line and wet loose avalanches below….

Click FULL FORECAST for more information.

Please share your field observations HERE