Valdez

Forecast Expired - 01/26/2019

Above 4,000ftConsiderable

2,000 to 4,000ftConsiderable

Below 2,000ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Persistent Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Wet Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Glide Avalanches:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

No avalanches have been reported since Jan 19th.

Please share your field observations including signs of stable snow HERE.

Weather

The most recent NWS rec Forecast can be found HERE:

323 PM AKST Thu Jan 24 2019
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
                   Tonight      Fri

Temp at 1000`      33 F         38 F

Temp at 3000`      32 F         27-34 F

Chance of precip   100%         100%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.71 in      0.75 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    0-7 in       0-5 in

Snow level         1500 ft       2400 ft

Wind 3000` ridges  SE 1-10 mph  S 15-22 mph

Additional Information

SNOWPACK BIG PICTURE: The older snowpack is quite stable (good strength and structure). Any new snow since Jan 12 is likely to be sitting on widespread facets and surface hoar. There could easily be 3′ of new slabs sitting on these buried weak layers on Friday Jan 25.

Recent snowpack history, from top to bottom:

Jan 23-current multiple days of warm and wet with freezing levels up to 2500′.

Jan 13-22 was mostly clear and dry with light to moderate north winds. Widespread Surface Hoar growth.

Jan 12-13 brought 3-10″ of new snow with little wind.

Jan 4-12 was VERY cold and dry: moderate winds and wind chill reaching -50F. Pockets of surface hoar and widespread Near Surface Faceting.

Dec 30-Jan 3 The New Year’s Eve storm brought nearly 2.5″ of SWE to Valdez and almost another 1″ (SWE) on the 2-3rd of January. The rain line was 1200′ during the Jan 2-3 storm, forming a 1-3″ crust locking up all the snow beneath it. These storms accumulated over 3′ above 2000′ near Thompson Pass. Both of these storms had little wind.

Above 4000′ the snowpack averages well over 300cm deep and has good strength and structure (few lemons). Below 4000′, the snowpack is significantly shallower and has old problem layers that are bonding well (rounding) and currently dormant: facet-crust combos and BASEL facets.

 

If you get out riding, please send in an observation.

Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM. 

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Alerts

The current hazard rating for the Valdez region is CONSIDERABLE, above treeline, for all 3 forecast areas. Rider triggered avalanches are likely in steep terrain: slab avalanches above the rain line and wet loose avalanches below….Click FULL FORECAST for more information.

Please share your field observations HERE.Â