The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.
It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.
Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.
1 large avalanche was reported on Dec 23rd: a slab avalanche near the ridgeline of RFS, below the cornice. It was reported as possibly a size 2.5, persistent slab that ran 800-1000'.
Over the past few days several small wind slabs released near Thompson Pass from human triggers and several more small cornices released naturally, south facing 3-4000'.
Since Dec 23 there has been little snow and light to moderate winds (mainly from the NE). 2" at Thompson pass. Trace at 46 mile. 4" in Valdez.
The NWS Rec Forecast can be found HERE:
318 PM AKST Thu Dec 27 2018
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Temp at 1000` 20 F 26 F
Temp at 3000` 23 F 23 F
Chance of precip 70% 50%
(above 1000 FT) 0.04 in 0.03 in
(above 1000 FT) 1-3 in 1-2 in
Snow level sea level sea level
Wind 3000` ridges NE 15-30 mph E 5-12 mph
If you get out riding, please send in an observation!
Do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM.
Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.
Beacon Practice Workshop: Friday Dec 28, 6-7:30pm Mike's Palace in VALDEZ. 45 Minutes inside review then 45 minute outside practice (bring snow boots). Free for VAC members ($25/annual) or $5 suggested donation.
The overall hazard is moderate and all 3 zones have the same forecast. Click 'full forecast' to get more info. The VAC is hosting a beacon practice session Friday Dec 28th, 6-7:30 in Valdez...come brush off your rescue rust!
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