Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 03/20/2022

Above 2,500ftModerate

1,500 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

AspectAll

Elevation: Tree Line and above

 

Bottom Line: Wind loaded slopes greater than 30 degrees below ridge tops, peaks, cornices and cross loaded features should remain suspect. Keep in mind that with recent snowfall, any existing wind slabs from the last few days or older may be difficult to near impossible to identify without further assessment. These slabs could exhibit a range of sensitivity from more reactive for more recent, to stubborn for older deeper wind slabs. They also could be sitting on a variety of smooth and rough old snow surfaces from before 3/11. Human triggered avalanches are possible while natural avalanches are unlikely. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

 

 

Travel Advice:

  • Look for blowing or drifting snow or rapid loading.
  • Avoid slopes with textured surfaces, suspect loading, or pockets of wind slab.
  • Identify and avoid shallow areas including trigger points around rocks, cliffs, and trees.
  • Understand wind slabs can break in shallow spots and propagate deeper.
  • Look, listen and feel for shooting cracks, collapses and hollow sounds.
  • Avoid terrain trap areas such as cliffs and gullies, and areas where it is hard to escape off to the side.

 

Additional Consideration:

  • We believe deeper persistent layers are currently dormant. However, you could still trigger a persistent slab in thin or shallow snow even if we haven’t had recent feedback or avalanche activity.
  • With the beginning of March comes a higher sun angle than we have seen for the last couple months. Surface warming will begin to be prevalent on solar days, especially around exposed rocks and creating thin and/or weak spots where you could trigger these deeper layers.
  • A variety of wind loading patterns throughout the season have created sizeable cornices on all aspects near mountain tops and ridgelines. Beware that cornices can break much further back than expect, can trigger deeper persistent weak layers and are sensitive to warming, temperature changes and direct sunlight.
  • Remember that persistent slabs are unpredictable and that tests and observations can be unreliable. A probe can be very helpful to determine snow depth and presence of deeper buried weak layers by noting resistance as the probe moves through the snow.
  • Continue to utilize safe travel protocol, wide margins of safety, and collect more information when it comes to entering committing terrain.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Loose Snow:

AspectAll

Elevation: Near and Above Treeline

 

Bottom Line: On slopes greater than 35 degree fresh deposits of anywhere between 1-3′ of new snow from the weather pattern that started 3/11 could produce the release of loose dry unconsolidated snow. These surface slides, sluffs, or point releases start at a point and entrain more snow as they move downhill and form a fan-shape on different aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible while natural avalanches are unlikely, however strong solar radiation and shallow features such as rocks, or cliffs could increase the hazard. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

 

Travel Advice:

  • Look for recent point releases observed in steep terrain
  • Observer boot deep penetration in loose surface snow
  • Ski tests on small slopes result in accelerating sluffs
  • Triggers include: falling snow, cornice fall, rock fall, increased wind or sun
  • Sluffs on steep continuous slopes can accelerate fast and run far.
  • Identify shallow terrain features like cliffs and rocks
  • Look out for small point releases and increasing solar radiation
  • Keep wide margins on slopes > 30 degree slope angle and complex terrain
  • Small slides can be very dangerous when a rider is carried into a terrain trap or over cliffs: Ask yourself.  If this snow moves, where is it going to stuff me. Terrain trap and what kind?

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

3/5-7/2022 – Numerous D1-D2 natural and human triggered activity 2-12″+ deep were reported on multiple aspects above treeline.

From 3/3, Wind slab on SE aspect at 2500ft, numerous reports of natural and human triggered wind slabs on multiple aspects above treeline 5-30cm deep from 3/3 – 3/9 as the wind direction switched direction from south to north.

 

From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones.

4Winds zone.  SW.  4000-5000′

 

Near Mt. Kraus

The confluence of the Boundary and Saksaia glaciers above Glacier Creek. N.  ~4700′

Weather

Forecast: 

A chance of clearing and sunshine during the morning and mid-day with scattered clouds increasing in the late afternoon, as the next low sets up late in the evening into Monday. Mountain temperatures in the mid 20 with light to moderate north winds.

Seasonal Summary:

  • March 1th-17th precipitation totals of 1-1.5″ SWE snow levels up to 2,000′ with south to north winds
  • March 3rd-7th reverse loading event with south winds, then north winds, continued diurnal temps.
  • Feb 28th-March 4th saw diurnal temperature swings followed by light accumulations of 2-4″.
  • Feb 16-19th light snow 3-4″ with freezing levels reaching 1,500′ with strong south winds.
  • Feb 12-14th had freeze/thaw cycles that locked up the snowpack to ~4,000′.
  • Feb 5th-9th brought snow levels near 3,500ft, and 2.5-4″ of SWE with strong south winds.
  • Feb 1st-4th brought in 12-24″ of low density powder.
  • Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
  • An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
  • Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
  • Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January.
  • Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
  • Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th.
  • Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th.
  • December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events.
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds.
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts.
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **  140″*  1″ / 0.1″*  10” / 1.0″*   0′ Light, NW   2″ / 0.2”*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  82″  1″ /0.1″  8″ / 0.6″   0′ Light, NW  2″ / 0.2″
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  40″  0.5” / 0.05”  5” / 0.3”   0′ Light, NW   1″ / 0.1”

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer. Make a donation to the Haines Avalanche Center for next season here.

Additional Information


Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.


Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).


 

Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

Education Video Links:

Announcements

Early to mid-March has historically claimed the most lives to avalanches in our mountains. Spring time is exciting, but remember to keep your stoke in check and in line with the weather and avalanche conditions. Click the  +Full Forecast  button below to read the details. Please submit your observations if you head out!