Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 03/06/2022

Above 2,500ftConsiderable

1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftLow

The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.

It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.

Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.

WNWNNEESESSW

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Aspect: SW-N-E

Elevation: Near and Above Treeline

 

Bottom Line: Strong Southeast to South winds accompanied by half foot of snow will arrive as the minor atmospheric river hits the northern Lynn Canal. Snow amounts could be higher further up in the alpine with the freezing line approaching 1,300′.  On slopes steeper than 35 degrees and on SW-N-E aspects, natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely in specific terrain. Leeward mountain features where greater amounts of snow can collect, such as below ridge lines, are areas of concern. Wind can transport snow 10 times faster than that rate at which it falls. Give cornices a wide berth and remember they can break much further back than you would expect.

 

Travel Advice:

  • Avoid slopes where the new snow was loaded and created surface wind slab.
  • Identify and avoid shallow areas including trigger points around rocks, cliffs, and trees.
  • Look for signs of snow that has been moved around by the wind (scouring and pillows of wind slab).
  • Look, listen and feel for shooting cracks, collapses and hollow sounds.
  • Avoid terrain trap areas such as cliffs and gullies, and areas where it is hard to escape off to the side.

 

Additional Consideration:

We believe deeper persistent layers are currently dormant. However, you could still trigger a persistent slab in thin or shallow snow even if we haven’t had recent feedback or avalanche activity. With the beginning of March comes a higher sun angle than we have seen for the last couple months. Surface warming will begin to be prevalent on solar days, especially around exposed rocks and creating thin and/or weak spots where you could trigger these deeper layers. Remember that persistent slabs are unpredictable and that tests and observations can be unreliable. A probe can be very helpful to determine snow depth and presence of deeper buried weak layers by noting resistance as the probe moves through the snow. Continue to use wide margins of safety, collect information and be patient when it comes to more committing terrain.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

First Photo: Deep slab natural avalanche that occurred roughly 1/29 in the Lutak Zone. This slide may have run on a buried facet layer from late December’s outflow event, or even a deeper rain crust near the ground (it went all the way to ground in spots).

Last two photos: From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine of the Transitional Zone. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones, but the Lutak slides appear to be on different layers.

 

4Winds zone.  SW.  4000-5000′

Near Mt. Kraus.

 

Weather

Forecast:

Overcast skies throughout the day then a general clearing as the storm moves out in the evening. 4-6” of snow expected with likely higher amounts further into the alpine. Low of 31F and high of 33F.  Freezing levels to 1300′. Moderate South winds with Strong gusts.

Seasonal Summary:

  • Feb 28th-March 4th saw diurnal temperature swings.
  • Feb 16-19th light snow 3-4″ with freezing levels reaching 1,500′ with strong south winds.
  • Feb 12-14th had freeze/thaw cycles that locked up the snowpack to ~4,000′.
  • Feb 5th-9th brought snow levels near 3,500ft, and 2.5-4″ of SWE with strong south winds.
  • Feb 1st-4th brought in 12-24″ of low density powder.
  • Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
  • An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
  • Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
  • Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January.
  • Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
  • Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th.
  • Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th.
  • December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events.
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds.
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts.
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **  125″*  1″ / 0.1″*  1” / 0.1″*   1300′ Strong, S   6″ / 0.6*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  73″  1″ /0.1″  1″ / 0.1″   1000′ Strong, S   6″ / 0.6″
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  36″  1” / 0.1”  1” / 0.1”   500′ Strong, SE   3″ / 0.3”

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer. Make a donation to the Haines Avalanche Center for next season here.

Additional Information

Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.

Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).

 

Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

Education Video Links:

Announcements

The next two weeks of March have historically claimed the most lives to avalanches in our mountains. Spring time is exciting, but remember to keep your stoke in check and in line with the weather and avalanche conditions. Click the  +Full Forecast  button below to read the details. Please submit your observations if you head out!