Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 02/06/2022

Above 2,500ftHigh

1,500 to 2,500ftHigh

Below 1,500ftHigh

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Persistent Slab:

 

Aspect: All aspects, especially wind-protected basins, aprons below steep terrain (see photos in Avalanche Activity Section below)

Elevation: Treeline and above.

 

Bottom Line: Avoid all avalanche terrain! Rapid, heavy loading on a suspect snowpack is occurring. The last several days have produced a number of natural avalanches with wide propagation. The onset of this new storm could be enough to tip the scales.  This problem will be difficult to identify with recent accumulations and new snowfall and heavy precipitation is adding more stress. Remote triggering is possible to common, even from mild terrain.  Human-triggered avalanches remain possible 1-6′ deep and even to the ground in some areas.

 

Travel Advice:

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain!
  • Stick to slopes less steep than 30-degrees while in the alpine. If you choose to venture onto steeper slopes, carefully evaluate them by digging, probing, and testing them. Reduce risk exposure and travel one-at-a-time.
  • Look shooting cracks, whumphing or collapsing that indicate a stiffer slab over weaker snow. 
  • Hard wind slabs can break above you, take into consideration extra safety margins
  • Probe and feel for slabs underneath you

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Storm Snow:

Aspect: All 

Elevation: Near and Above Treeline, or above the freezing level.

 

Bottom Line: Very heavy and wet snowfall is expected today, with accumulations approaching 13″ by tonight. South winds will be moving around the new snow, and temperatures will be hovering near freezing. Avalanches will be likely within the new snow. Wind loaded areas could accumulate enough critical loading to trigger deep persistent weak layers, which could cause wide propagation and very large avalanches that run full-path.

 

Travel Advice:

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain! Stick to slopes less than 30 degrees.
  • Asses for crack propagation potential, especially over convexities.
  • If you head out, stick to the trees and watch out for terrain traps where even small slides could pile up to be quite deep.
  • Stay out of avalanche runout zones along valley bottoms.

 

 

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Wet Avalanches:

Aspect: All

Elevation: Below freezing levels ~2,000′

 

Bottom Line: The advent of this front is bringing in heavy precipitation, warmer temperatures, and rain on saturated snow. Anywhere at or below the freezing level, natural wet avalanches are likely.  This includes the potential of liquid water loosening bonds not only at the surface, but deeper down on buried weak layers, or at the ground and could produce wet slab avalanches (see persistent problem.)

 

 

Travel advice:

  • Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
  • With the nature of wet avalanches and the intensity of the incoming storm, no reliable travel technique through avalanche terrain will keep you safe.
  • Avoiding any slopes greater than 25 degrees, connected terrain, and run out zones are vital to not getting caught in a potentially small to large slide.
  • Be cautious of areas where terrain traps can turn small avalanches into deep burials. Dangerous conditions exist.

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

First Photo: Deep slab natural avalanche that occurred roughly 1/29 in the Lutak Zone. This slide may have run on a buried facet layer from late December’s outflow event, or even a deeper rain crust near the ground (it went all the way to ground in spots).

Last two photos: From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine of the Transitional Zone. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones, but the Lutak slides appear to be on different layers.

 

Weather

Forecast:

A quick moving moisture-laden front moved into the area yesterday afternoon. Through Sunday evening, this storm is expected to drop 1-3” of water equivalent precipitation. Multiple bands of precipitation will bring a prolonged period of heavy to moderate rainy on top of on already saturated snowpack. Snow levels will rise to ~2,000′. 8-16 inches of snow is predicted beyond 22 miles Haines Highway and areas above the freezing level. South winds gusting to the high 30s will accompany this storm.

Seasonal Summary:

  • Feb 1st-4th brought in about 10″ of low density cold smoke powder
  • Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
  • An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
  • Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
  • Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January
  • Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
  • Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th
  • Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th
  • December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **  110″ *  “10/1.0″*  15″ / 1.5″*  2,000′  Strong, S    13/ 1.3*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  73″  4″ / 0.08″  11″ / 0.90″  2,000′  Strong, S   13″/1.3 “
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  30″  4″ / 0.08″  6″ / 0.30″  2,000′  Mod, S   11″/ 1.0*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.

Additional Information


Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.


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Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

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