Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast as of 11/15/2021 at 08:00 AM and expires on 11/15/2021

Above 2,500ftNone

1,500 to 2,500ftNone

Below 1,500ftNone

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Persistent Slab:

 

Our alpine snowpack in all zones contains one or more rain crusts from mid October. Weak facetted snow has formed above and below the crust, and has been found to be quite sensitive to the weight of our new snow. Any contiguous pockets of snowpack will be suspect to fail on this layer, about 30cm deep. We expect that this October rain crust will be a persistent problem as we go into winter. It exists above 3000ft.

 

What is the best way to manage this risk? We can simply avoid alpine terrain that is about 30 degrees and steeper. Be aware that venturing on these steeper alpine slopes is relatively high risk currently.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Wind Slab:

Recent NW winds have been building up wind slabs on lee aspects and cross loaded terrain. Expect these new wind slabs to be sensitive to human triggering.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Weather

October brought in heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts. November was mostly dry until the 12th, when about a foot of new snow fell.

 

Looking forward, another 15-20″ is likely to fall in the mountains Tuesday-Friday, with some rain mixed in and lesser totals in the valleys. Winds are expected to be strong and variable this week as multiple storms move through the area.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline   19″  0″ / 0.00* 12″ / 1.00*   0′  strong, NW 0″ / 0.00*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  31″  0″ / 0.00 13″ / 1.10  0′ strong, NW 0″ / 0.00*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  21″  0″ / 0.00 6″ / 0.30  0′ strong, NW 0″ / 0.00*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Information

In November, onX Backcountry is donating $10 of every membership to support forecasting. By leveraging their Slope Angle and Avalanche Forecast layers you’ll have access to the tools that help  inform safer backcountry travel this year.


 

Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has full batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

Education Video Links:

Announcements

Click the –Full Forecast– button below for more details. Regular forecasting will be starting Friday 11/19. Forecasts will be issued every THU, FRI, SAT, SUN. Occasional forecasts may also be issued on other days of the week depending on conditions.