Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 11/25/2022

Above 2,500ftConsiderable

1,500 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,500ftLow

The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.

It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.

Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.

WNWNNEESESSW

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Storm Snow:

The Bottom Line: We are starting our season with an Assessment mindset. So far this autumn has been marked by extremes — both warm and cold, snowy and rainy.  This is a much different set up than we had last season at this time. Overall you can find lots of variability due to multiple strong wind events (most recently from the southeast), with thin areas having a weak facetted snowpack and thicker areas containing midpack rain crusts. The main threat for now is fresh storm slabs at the top, turning into harder wind slabs once the NW winds pick up Saturday into Sunday.

 

You can expect any fresh storm slabs to be tender to human triggering in steep terrain. Especially on wind loaded slopes (NW-N-NE) and cross-loaded gullies. They will be running on density interfaces within the new snow, or on last week’s melt-freeze crust. Rocks will be a major safety hazard as well, so take it slow and easy, and keep your avalanche eyeballs on, especially in wind loaded areas and convexities!

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Glide Avalanches:

To add to our early season uncertainties, there was a significant glide avalanche cycle Nov 16-18 during a strong warming event at upper elevations. These slides mainly occurred in areas near treeline on NE aspects, where the snowpack is fat and sitting on steep grassy slopes underneath. There are still many glide cracks that have not yet failed into full avalanches. Despite the cooling weather, these cracks still need to be avoided as they may still fail at any time. Keep an eye above you and stay out from underneath these cracks.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Glide avalanches from 11/18, transitional zone, 2500ft

DATE LOCATION SIZE TRIGGER DETAILS START ZONE TYPE BED SFC
Nov 18, 2022
(+/- 1 day)
Takhin Ridge D2-3 R2-3 N-Natural multiple Glide Avys- N,NE aspects N – NE Glide Ground
Nov 18, 2022
(+/- 1 day)
Transitional Zone glacier headwalls D3 R4 N-Natural two different surface wind slab releses. wide propagation NE

5250ft
Wind Slab Old snow ~30cm deep
Nov 18, 2022
(+/- 1 day)
Transitional Zone D2.5 N-Natural Wet loose sluffs that entrained large amount of debris and gouged to ground N WL-Wet Loose Ground

Weather

Forecast:

Friday looks mostly calm and cloudy as Thursday’s storm moves out, and a new one slides past us Friday night with 1-2″ of accumulation. Saturday – Sunday will bring clearing skies, and increasing arctic outflow with NW winds becoming strong and temperatures dropping substantially.

Seasonal Summary:

  • Nov 20-24 brought about 2ft of new snow above 2000ft (about 1ft in the Pass zone)
  • Mid November was very warm, with temperatures reaching over 40F at 5000ft.
  • A NW wind event Nov. 6th blew away much of snow in exposed areas
  • 2 to 3ft of snow fell in Early November down to sea level
  • October 26-27th brought in 5-12″ of heavy wet snow above 1500ft
  • The first layer of snow to remain into winter fell above 3,500ft on Oct 21st. It was 6-12″ deep.
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ 2,500′  43″  0″ / 0.00″*  9″ / 1.00″*   500′ Light, Var   3″ / 0.2″*
Flower Mountain @ 2,500′  37″  0″ / 0.00″  16″ / 1.30″  500′ Light, Var   1″ / 0.05″*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  13″  0″ / 0.00”  8″ / 0.80”  500′ Light, Var   0″ / 0.00″*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Information

It’s time to start thinking avalanche. Dust off your gear and make sure it is fully functional. Put new batteries in your beacons! Do a beacon practice to start the season and keep your skills fresh.

If you head into the hills, watch out for avalanche prone areas, and be especially careful of rocks and hidden hazards like crevasses beneath the snow. WEAR A HELMET!

Announcements

We have begun regular forecasting for this winter (Fridays-Sundays). Click the Full Forecast link below to read more. Please submit your observations if you head out into the hills!