Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 01/16/2021

Above 2,500ftHigh

1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftConsiderable

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Storm Snow:

Confidence : High. Distribution: Widespread. Yesterday’s new snow added nearly 2″ of SWE to the upper snowpack that started cold and ended warm, an upside-down setup. This will be adding stress to any buried persistent weak layers further down. There will also likely be weak interfaces within the new storm snow. Strong southeast winds last night will have caused heavy wind loading on lee aspects and cross loading in gullies/terrain features. Human-triggered avalanches are likely today. Avoid terrain 28-degrees and steeper. This is a bad day to venture into avalanche terrain. Smaller slides could step down to deeper weak layers, causing wide propagation.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Confidence: Moderate to High. Distribution: Isolated to Widespread. We have two primary layers of concern:

  1.  Melt-freeze crust from 1/10 down 60-80cm in elevations up to ~3000′
  2.  New-Years Surface Hoar and Near-Surface-Facets interface ~100-120cm down in protected areas near tree-line, steep openings and alpine bowls.

Observations are limited. It is uncertain how these layers will react to the new load. These weak layers are tricky and could produce large avalanches with recent rapid loading of the new snow, especially in steep terrain, rollovers, and wind loaded areas. Today’s new snowfall, rain on snow, and strong south winds are adding a lot of stress to these deeper weak layers, creating a dangerous situation.

 

(Surface hoar near-treeline in the Transitional Zone 12/31. Once buried by wind slab or new snow these feathery crystals become a dangerous persistent weak layer that will require extremely careful assessment and overall immediate avoidance in avalanche terrain. Photo: Tim Thomas)

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Bottom Line: 2 feet of new snow at higher elevation and closer to the Canadian border, with strong southeast winds and increasing temperatures. Near sea-level: above freezing temperatures and rain.  Recent snow sits over a melt-freeze crust down 60-80cm formed briefly 1/10 as temperatures spiked. Below that down 100-120cm in areas are the New-Years surface hoar and/or facets. Elevations below 1500′ expect snow to become saturated with wet avalanches possible in steep terrain.

Avoid avalanche terrain today. Even small slides can kill, especially when they run into terrain traps. In times of high danger, route-finding skills are essential.

 

Weather

Around 1.7″ of precipitation fell over mountain areas Thursday-Friday, with roughly 16-24″ of new snow accumulation and some rain up to 2000ft. Another storm moves in midday Saturday, with another 1″+ of precipitation likely by Sunday Morning and snow levels near 1000ft. Winds will be light northerly Saturday, becoming strong southerly on Sunday. The Mt. Ripinsky weather station is completely buried and no longer reporting snow depth.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline   135″+*  3″ / 0.50*  16″ / 1.50*  1500′  light, var  16″ / 1.40*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  108″  3″ / 0.50  20″ / 1.70  1000′ light, var   12″ / 1.00*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  70″   5″ / 0.40 17″ / 1.48  1000′ light, var  6″ / 0.5*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Information

Practice like you play. Dust off your gear and make sure it is fully functional. Put new batteries in your beacons! Make sure everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe – and knows how to use them, keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whumphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

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