Rain below 3000′ is saturating the upper portion of the snowpack increasing the likelihood for wet slab and wet loose avalanches. Rain was reported to the top of Thompson Pass through the night and is forecasted to continue through Saturday, with an additional 1 inch of water possible. As above freezing temperatures and rain penetrate deeper into the snowpack the size of wet loose avalanches will increase and have the potential to entrain a significant amount of snow. It would be wise to stay clear from the runouts of large avalanche paths today, as these have the potential to run full path today.
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today as our snowpack undergoes a major change. Heavy snowfall above 3000′ and rain below are expected for our area over the next 24 hours. The freezing line is forecasted to hover around the top of Thompson Pass today. Above 3000′ wet/heavy snow is falling on a foot or more of what once was low density snow that arrived 1/19. This will cause the upper portion of the snowpack to become upside down, creating widespread areas of unstable snow. Human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible today 1-3+ feet deep. The avalanche hazard will be increasing over the next 24 hours.
As the upper snowpack becomes increasingly top heavy, the likelihood will increase for avalanches to step down or fail at old faceted snow buried 3 feet or more in our mid snowpack . (see problem 3) Avalanches will have the potential to run full path today.
In many locations developed facets exist in our mid snowpack. These facets are being stressed by warm temperatures and heavy precipitation, and may be overloaded creating large avalanches. Human triggered avalanches are likely today that could exceed 3 feet in depth, natural avalanches are possible..
(2mm grid) Photo of chained facets found in the low elevation area of Girls Mountain 1/13. In many areas these facets are capped by knife hard wind slabs making them difficult to affect and detect.
1/13- Multiple large natural avalanches were noted following the snowfall on 1/13. Most were near high elevation ridge lines, although mid elevation storm slabs were noted on north aspect of Catchers Mitt and south aspect of Mile high. Other avalanche not shown in photos include Goodwills north aspect and Oddeyssey north aspect.
1/1-1/4- The new years day wind event created an avalanche cycle that was difficult to document due to crowns being rapidly reloaded by 80 mph winds. Below are photos of a couple very large slides that were still visible in the Hippie ridge area. Naturals were also noted on Three Pigs, 40.5 Mile, Crudbusters, Python Buttress.
12/29- Multiple natural wet loose D1-D2’s were observed in the Port of Valdez with no step downs noted.
12/23- Berlin Wall north face ~5000′ HS-N-R3-D2-O. It is possible this occurred on 12/21, although it was not observed until 12/24.
12/21- Numerous natural avalanches observed all along the north side of Thompson Pass, as a result of strong NE wind event along with a couple inches of new snow and rising temperatures. Observed naturals on all aspects except windward slopes with crowns originating from 1000 feet to 5500 feet in elevation. Most of these were hard slab avalanches. Crown depths were difficult to discern due to reloading, although some crowns looked to be up to 2 meters in depth.
12/19- D 2.5 natural avalanches were observed on the north facing buttress west of Gully 1 and Schoolbus.
12/14- Several natural avalanches were observed although poor visibility prevented a full view of the action. The most notable natural was observed in Nicks Happy Valley on a NW aspect ~4000′. Crown depth was not visible. Debris ran down the valley and piled up at the typical snowmachine pickup.
12/8- Large remote trigger/ sympathetic avalanche event occurred 12/8 with avalanches extending from Gully 1 to Nicks. Avalanches were soft slabs that ranged in size from D1-D3. Over 10 separate avalanches were counted with crown depths averaging 2-3′. One avalanche had a crown length of half a mile while another was triggered over a mile away from the point of collapse. See observation section for full report and more photos.
12/7- Only a few natural avalanches were noted during the last storm. It is likely there were more during the storm, but crowns may have been filled in by subsequent wind and snow.
D2’s on Town mountain was observed ~3000′
A couple of D2’s were noted in N. Oddessey gully and Big Oddessey.
D2 on 40.5 mile peak ~5500′.
12/2-12/3- Several natural D2 avalanches were noted on south aspects of Three pigs, Hippie Ridge and Averys. These windslab avalanches originated between 4000-5500 feet elevation.
NWS Watches and Warnings
Point forecast for Thompson Pass
Detailed forecast for Thompson Pass (mid elevation 2000-4000′)
DATE SATURDAY 01/22 SUNDAY 01/23
TIME (LT) 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06
CLOUD COVER OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
CLOUD COVER (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
TEMPERATURE 31 34 34 31 29 32 31 29 28
MAX/MIN TEMP 34 28 33 27
WIND DIR SE SE SE SE S S SE SE SE
WIND (MPH) 14 16 19 14 17 13 19 20 19
WIND GUST (MPH) 46
PRECIP PROB (%) 100 100 100 100 90 90 90 100 90
PRECIP TYPE S S S S S S S S S
12 HOUR QPF 0.44 0.18 0.18 0.33
12 HOUR SNOW 3.1 1.4 1.7 3.4
SNOW LEVEL (KFT)2.5 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7
Snow and Temperature Measurements
All snowfall measurements are expressed in inches and temperature in Fahrenheit. 24 hour sample period is from 6am-6am.
* 24 hour snow water equivalent/ SWE.
** Season total snowfall measurements for 46 mile began December 1st.
Season history graphs for Thompson Pass
Click on links below to see a clear and expanded view of above Season history graphs
TP WX Nov 21
TP wx Dec 21
TP wx as of 1/6
Winter weather began early this season, with valley locations receiving their first snowfall on the last day of Summer (September 21st). Following this storm, above average temperatures and wet weather occurred from late September through early November. During this time period Thompson Pass received 96 inches of snowfall by November 7th and Valdez recorded 7.73″ of rain.
After the 7th of November our region experienced a sharp weather pattern change. Temperatures dropped below seasonal norms and snowfall became infrequent. Between the time frame of November 7th- November 28th Thompson Pass only reported 19″ of snow with 1.1″ of Snow water equivalent (SWE). Temperatures remained below 0° F for most of the period. This cold/dry weather caused significant faceting of the snowpack, with poor structure the result.
Moderate snowfall returned to our area the last day of November and deposited 6-12 inches of new snow. The amount varied depending upon the locations’ proximity to the coast. As the storm exited on the 2nd of December it was quickly replaced by moderate to strong northeast winds.
On 12/5-12/6 Valdez received 2 feet of new snow with Thompson Pass reporting 16″. Blaring red flags like collapsing, shooting cracks and propagation in stability tests were immediately present. On 12/8 a significant remote/ sympathetic avalanche event occurred from Gully 1 through Nick’s Happy Valley.
Strong outflow winds began on 12/11 with periods of light snowfall. This has caused slab thicknesses to become variable in areas exposed to NE winds.
A fair amount of natural avalanche activity occurred during the 12/11 wind event mostly on southerly aspects. The week following this wind event fairly benign weather occurred which allowed the snowpack to adjust and for stability to improve although snowpack structure has remained poor.
On 12/21 our area received a couple inches of snow along with temperatures rising and strong outflow winds. This combination of weather kicked off a fairly significant natural avalanche cycle. Many of the slabs appeared to be deeper wind slabs that were created from the 12/11 wind event. These failed on faceted snow created in November. The event is yet another indicator of our poor snowpack structure and its inability to receive any major change in weather without the avalanche hazard rising in conjunction.
On 12/26-28 warm air moved in at elevation and caused light rain to fall up to ~4000′. A very thin rain crust was formed in many locations that was unable to support a persons weight.
A prolonged period of strong north winds began on new years day with wind speeds reaching 80 mph. As winds tapered to 30-40 mph on the 5th temperatures plummeted with lows exceeding -30 F in the Tsaina valley.
Snowfall returned to our area on 1/13 with a foot of snow reported on Thompson Pass. An additional ~6 inches of snow were received on 1/15 with settled storm totals of 2.5 feet above 5000′.
Moderate outflow winds kicked up on 1/16, but were short-lived and not wide spread. This was followed by two days of calm and mild weather.
The avalanche hazard is Considerable at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches 1-3+ feet deep are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Rain is saturating the snowpack below 3000′ increasing the potential for large wet/loose or slab avalanches. Above 3000′ heavy snow is falling, building the depths of storm slabs that are likely sensitive to human triggers. The avalanche hazard will remain elevated until temperatures fall below the freezing mark and precipitation stops.
Click the + Full Forecast button below for a list of current avalanche problems, travel advice, weather resources and more.
Help to improve your local avalanche center and contribute an observation to the website. You can also contact me directly at [email protected] (907) 255-7690.
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