As a storm approaches from the Gulf, north winds are forecasted to increase with gusts to 80 mph. Strong winds along with moderate snowfall (6-12 inches) will be forming windslabs on a variety of snow surfaces. Cold temperatures and strong wind at the beginning of the storm may prevent new snow from bonding to old wind slabs and rain crusts. Winds are forecasted to move from northeast to east and then southeast as the storm progresses which will cause wind slabs to form on a variety of aspects. Expect for the avalanche hazard to increase Monday as temperatures warm significantly causing the snow surface to become top heavy. Human triggered avalanches will be possible up to 1 foot in depth and may run fast due to the hard snow that is underneath. The avalanche hazard will be higher if more snow arrives than is forecasted.
New snow, strong winds and increasing temperatures will all be combining to stress weak/ faceted snow within our snowpack. At this point this layer is unlikely to be affected, but as more snow accumulates and temperatures warm the likelihood will increase. At this point we do not have a typical coastal Alaskan snowpack. Instability and natural avalanche cycles will become likely with smaller changes in weather than what is typical. It is always important to use caution while a snowpack is undergoing changes. It is especially important with our current setup.
The most likely places to trigger a persistent slab avalanche will be in thin rocky areas or anywhere the snowpack is thinner and the weak layer is closer to the surface. Other areas include places that have not been affected by recent wind events, and locations north of Thompson pass where colder temperatures has created an even weaker snowpack.
Photo of developed facets found on Catchers Mitt on 1/6, 2mm grid. The depth of these facets varies greatly depending upon wind redistribution. These were found just below the surface in a wind scoured area. On lee sides of terrain features facets may be found beneath 2-3+ feet of knife hard wind slabs.
1/1-1/4- The new years day wind event created an avalanche cycle that was difficult to document due to crowns being rapidly reloaded by 80 mph winds. Below are photos of a couple very large slides that were still visible in the Hippie ridge area. Naturals were also noted on Three Pigs, 40.5 Mile, Crudbusters, Python Buttress.
12/29- Multiple natural wet loose D1-D2’s were observed in the Port of Valdez with no step downs noted.
12/23- Berlin Wall north face ~5000′ HS-N-R3-D2-O. It is possible this occurred on 12/21, although it was not observed until 12/24.
12/21- Numerous natural avalanches observed all along the north side of Thompson Pass, as a result of strong NE wind event along with a couple inches of new snow and rising temperatures. Observed naturals on all aspects except windward slopes with crowns originating from 1000 feet to 5500 feet in elevation. Most of these were hard slab avalanches. Crown depths were difficult to discern due to reloading, although some crowns looked to be up to 2 meters in depth.
12/19- D 2.5 natural avalanches were observed on the north facing buttress west of Gully 1 and Schoolbus.
12/14- Several natural avalanches were observed although poor visibility prevented a full view of the action. The most notable natural was observed in Nicks Happy Valley on a NW aspect ~4000′. Crown depth was not visible. Debris ran down the valley and piled up at the typical snowmachine pickup.
12/8- Large remote trigger/ sympathetic avalanche event occurred 12/8 with avalanches extending from Gully 1 to Nicks. Avalanches were soft slabs that ranged in size from D1-D3. Over 10 separate avalanches were counted with crown depths averaging 2-3′. One avalanche had a crown length of half a mile while another was triggered over a mile away from the point of collapse. See observation section for full report and more photos.
12/7- Only a few natural avalanches were noted during the last storm. It is likely there were more during the storm, but crowns may have been filled in by subsequent wind and snow.
D2’s on Town mountain was observed ~3000′
A couple of D2’s were noted in N. Oddessey gully and Big Oddessey.
D2 on 40.5 mile peak ~5500′.
12/2-12/3- Several natural D2 avalanches were noted on south aspects of Three pigs, Hippie Ridge and Averys. These windslab avalanches originated between 4000-5500 feet elevation.
NWS Watches and Warnings
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
525 AM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY
THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
4 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.
* WHERE...Thompson Pass.
* WHEN...From noon today to 9 AM AKST Monday.
Point forecast for Thompson Pass
Detailed forecast for Thompson Pass (mid elevation 2000-4000′)
DATE SUNDAY 01/09 MONDAY 01/10
TIME (LT) 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06
CLOUD COVER BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
CLOUD COVER (%) 65 100 95 100 95 90 95 95 100
TEMPERATURE -8 1 11 19 24 26 26 26 27
MAX/MIN TEMP 8 8 26 26
WIND DIR NE NE NE E E E E E SE
WIND (MPH) 27 28 24 24 16 5 5 6 9
WIND GUST (MPH) 72 78 78 71 57
PRECIP PROB (%) 60 90 100 90 70 60 70 90 90
PRECIP TYPE S S S S S S S S S
12 HOUR QPF 0.21 0.45 0.11 0.18
12 HOUR SNOW 4.1 7.5 1.1 2.1
SNOW LEVEL (KFT)0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Snow and Temperature Measurements
All snowfall measurements are expressed in inches and temperature in Fahrenheit. 24 hour sample period is from 6am-6am.
* 24 hour snow water equivalent/ SWE.
** Season total snowfall measurements for 46 mile began December 1st.
Season history graphs for Thompson Pass
Click on links below to see a clear and expanded view of above Season history graphs
TP WX Nov 21
TP wx Dec 21
TP wx as of 1/6
Winter weather began early this season, with valley locations receiving their first snowfall on the last day of Summer (September 21st). Following this storm, above average temperatures and wet weather occurred from late September through early November. During this time period Thompson Pass received 96 inches of snowfall by November 7th and Valdez recorded 7.73″ of rain.
After the 7th of November our region experienced a sharp weather pattern change. Temperatures dropped below seasonal norms and snowfall became infrequent. Between the time frame of November 7th- November 28th Thompson Pass only reported 19″ of snow with 1.1″ of Snow water equivalent (SWE). Temperatures remained below 0° F for most of the period. This cold/dry weather caused significant faceting of the snowpack, with poor structure the result.
Moderate snowfall returned to our area the last day of November and deposited 6-12 inches of new snow. The amount varied depending upon the locations’ proximity to the coast. As the storm exited on the 2nd of December it was quickly replaced by moderate to strong northeast winds.
On 12/5-12/6 Valdez received 2 feet of new snow with Thompson Pass reporting 16″. Blaring red flags like collapsing, shooting cracks and propagation in stability tests were immediately present. On 12/8 a significant remote/ sympathetic avalanche event occurred from Gully 1 through Nick’s Happy Valley.
Strong outflow winds began on 12/11 with periods of light snowfall. This has caused slab thicknesses to become variable in areas exposed to NE winds.
A fair amount of natural avalanche activity occurred during the 12/11 wind event mostly on southerly aspects. The week following this wind event fairly benign weather occurred which allowed the snowpack to adjust and for stability to improve although snowpack structure has remained poor.
On 12/21 our area received a couple inches of snow along with temperatures rising and strong outflow winds. This combination of weather kicked off a fairly significant natural avalanche cycle. Many of the slabs appeared to be deeper wind slabs that were created from the 12/11 wind event. These failed on faceted snow created in November. The event is yet another indicator of our poor snowpack structure and its inability to receive any major change in weather without the avalanche hazard rising in conjunction.
On 12/26-28 warm air moved in at elevation and caused light rain to fall up to ~4000′. A very thin rain crust was formed in many locations that was unable to support a persons weight.
A prolonged period of strong north winds began on new years day with wind speeds reaching 80 mph. As winds tapered to 30-40 mph on the 5th temperatures plummeted with lows exceeding -30 F in the Tsaina valley.
The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations. New snow and strong north winds will be forming shallow wind slabs 6-12 inches in depth. Human triggered avalanches will be possible in specific locations such as lee aspects.
Click the + Full Forecast button below for a list of current avalanche problems, travel advice, weather resources and more.
Help to improve your local avalanche center and contribute an observation to the website. You can also contact me directly at [email protected] (907) 255-7690.
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